Stalin puts leadership doubts to rest

As the dust settles on the verdict of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Tamil Nadu stands as an outlier—arguably the sole state with such a pronounced anti-BJP sentiment. The ruling AIADMK allied with the BJP and others, but the combine polled only 29.77 per cent of votes in the LS elections. As for bypolls to 22 Assembly seats, there was no seat sharing, as both Dravidian majors fielded their candidates. The AIADMK got 38.2 per cent of votes in the by-elections. In contrast, the DMK alliance, which included the Congress and others, polled 51.5 per cent of votes in the LS elections. In the bypolls, the DMK’s vote share was 45.1 per cent. In terms of seats, this left the AIADMK with a single seat out of 38 in the Lok Sabha (elections to the Vellore seat were countermanded) and nine of the 22 bypoll seats.  

For the AIADMK, success in the bypolls was crucial to remain in government in the state. However, this was no loss for the DMK. The party’s chief M K Stalin, leading the Dravidian major less than a year after the death of his father and party patriarch M Karunanidhi, had a lot to prove. The party has been out of power in the state since 2011, and out of power at the Centre since 2014. It last spent so much time out of power during the government of late Chief Minister M G Ramachandran, who founded the AIADMK. One of Karunanidhi’s biggest achievements was in keeping his flock together during those years. Whether Stalin could lead the party to electoral victory, or failing that keep the party together like his father was the question on everyone’s minds.

Faced with an arithmetically formidable alliance led by the AIADMK, Stalin mounted a Lok Sabha campaign that looked to tap into the state’s anger against the Centre. Demonetisation, GST implementation, NEET and perceived neglect following two major cyclones were just some of the issues he raised against the BJP, articulating their impact with a focus few national opposition leaders were able to match. The alliance virtually swept the LS polls thus resting questions on Stalin’s leadership for now. While it may not have won enough seats in the bypolls to topple the state government, having tasted blood, the DMK is well placed to go in for the kill in 2021.