Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made a significant political statement by leaving out Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan from the list of guests invited for his second term swearing-in ceremony.
Five years ago, when Modi romped to victory, he had made a reconciliatory gesture towards Pakistan by inviting the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, even as he had been voted to power on a poll campaign promise that his government would be tough with Pakistan. However, after a series of ISI-backed terror attacks, beginning in Gurdaspur and Pathankot, which were followed by post-Burhan Wani violence and Uri, Pakistan left no room for the Modi government to engage Islamabad through diplomacy and dialogue.
Reaching out to Pakistan appears to be misinterpreted. The Pulwama suicide bombing on Fenruary 14, owned by Pakistan based terror group Jaish-e-Mohammad, precipitated another major crisis and brought the two hostile neighbors to the brink of war. Modi’s decision to retaliate against the terror attack with air strikes on Jaish-e-Mohammad terror camps within Pakistani territory in Balakot, led to a paradigm shift in the Indian response. Since then, Prime Minister Imran Khan has been making peace overtures in vain.
Modi has returned to power in recent parliamentary elections with a bigger mandate than the last time, and has no incentive to reciprocate Khan’s rhetoric. After Balakot the Modi government has managed with the help of the US, UK and France to pressurize China to unblock its move at the UN to designate Jaish chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist. This has also coincided with Pakistan’s deep economic crisis and a bailout from the IMF.
At this point, New Delhi should gauge through backchannel contacts whether Islamabad (and even more importantly, Rawalpindi) have anything concrete on offer. Fuller engagement must await a tangible change in Islamabad’s use of the terror tool.
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