The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) noted in a weather outlook that conditions are likely to become favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of SouthBay of Bengal, Andaman Islands and north Andaman Sea during next 72 hours. Further, the UN World Meteorological Organization stated in an update yesterday that a strong El Nino phenomenon this year looks unlikely.
Given current conditions and model outlooks, the chance of El Nino during June-August 2019 is estimated at 60-65%, decreasing to 50% from September 2019 onwards. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon involving fluctuations of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. It has a major influence on weather and climate patterns over many parts of the world and is linked to hazards such as heavy rains, floods and drought.
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