Polish Ruling Party Set to Eke Out Narrow Victory in EU Ballot

(Bloomberg) -- Poland’s ruling Law & Justice Party, which has clashed with the European Union over immigration and the rule of law, is poised for a narrow victory over a liberal coalition in elections for the bloc’s parliament.

Law & Justice won 42% in Sunday’s vote, according to an exit poll by the Ipsos pollster. The European Coalition won 39%. If confirmed in final results due by Tuesday, the victory shows the nationalist government still has the advantage, if only a small one, ahead of general elections due by November.

“We won but the victory shows that we must work very hard before the parliamentary election,” ruling party chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski said on Sunday. “The decisive battle over the future of our homeland will take place in the fall.”

Law & Justice has benefited from one of the EU’s fastest-growing economies and improvements in tax collection, which has allowed the government to splurge on welfare. With gross domestic product expanding at a pace of around 5% over the past three years, Poles are becoming more upbeat over their economic futures.

Tight control over public television, which is run by a former Law & Justice lawmaker, has also helped limit the impact from scandals, including over real-estate dealings by Kaczynski and more recently, by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

The pro-EU opposition, cobbled together by the main opposition Civic Platform party, focused its message mainly on getting rid of Law & Justice but failed to spell out a vision for the country of 38 million people. The result is set to boost pressure on Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council and a former Polish prime minister, to do more before the general election to help pro-EU voices regain power.

The leftist Spring party was in third place with nearly 7%, according to the Ipsos poll, which was compiled for Poland’s top three broadcasters, followed by the Nationalist Confederation with 6%.

With the two main parties running virtually neck-and-neck, it may be backing for their potential junior coalition partners that will determine who’ll muster a parliamentary majority in the general ballot.

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.