The huge margins with which most of the BJP candidates have won in the Lok Sabha election in Rajasthan depict a decisive shift in the voters’ preference for the party barely five months after the State Assembly elections. However, the factors which combined with the “national mood” varied in different regions of the State.
The Congress was elected to power in the 2018 Assembly elections on the basis of people’s verdict that was perceived to be against the rule of then Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. However, the BJP seems to have regained lost ground by recording a bigger victory than in 2014, increasing its overall vote share as well as its margin in 19 of the 25 seats which it has won.
With a vote share of 58%, against 55.61% in 2014, the BJP candidates won with a margin of more than 4 lakh votes in nine LS constituencies. There were only two seats — Dausa and Karauli-Dholpur — where the margin was less than 1 lakh, probably because the candidates could not get sufficient time to campaign due to late decision on their names.
Subhash Chandra Baheria won with the biggest margin of 6.12 lakh votes in Bhilwara, followed by Chandra Prakash Joshi in Chittorgarh (5.76 lakh votes) and Diya Kumari in Rajsamand (5.51 lakh votes).
The 19 seats where the BJP has increased its margin include Pali, Barmer, Ajmer, Udaipur, Banswara, Alwar, Bharatpur, Jhunjhunu, Sikar and Jhalawar-Baran.
Only two of the Ministers, who were given responsibility to mobilise the voters in favour of the Congress candidates, were able to ensure the party’s lead over the BJP in their Assembly constituencies.
The Congress candidates got more votes at Sapotra, represented by Food & Civil Supplies Minister Ramesh Meena, and Sikrai, represented by Women & Child Development Minister Mamta Bhupesh.
The vote share of the Congress, which had received 39.3% of the total votes in the 2018 Assembly elections, reduced to 34.2% in the Lok Sabha election and it could not win even a single seat in the State.
While the caste combinations relied upon by the Congress did not succeed with major sections among Jats, Gujjars and Dalits apparently turning to the BJP, a number of factors helped the latter in scoring a landslide victory in different regions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in Churu after the Balakot air strike on February 26 immensely helped the party in the Shekhawati region, from where a large number of youth are recruited in the armed forces every year.
In the Marwar region, the alliance with the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party helped the BJP in mobilising Jats in its favour, as RLP chief Hanuman Beniwal wields considerable influence in Nagaur, Jodhpur and Barmer districts. The emergence of the Bharatiya Tribal Party in the Mewar region adversely affected the prospects of the Congress in Udaipur and Banswara, while the BJP depended on the influence of outfits like the Vanvasi Kalyan Parishad and the Bajrang Dal.
Gujjars in eastern Rajasthan extended their support to the BJP after the community leader, Kirori Singh Bainsla, joined the party.