After the flood of calls and congratulatory letters to Prime Minister Narendra Modi from foreign leaders are dealt with, the new government’s tasks on the Foreign policy front in the next few weeks are quite clearly cut out.
Swearing in ceremony
MEA and Rashtrapati Bhawan officials say that no decision has been taken yet on who will be invited to the swearing-in ceremony. In May 2014, calls to invite leaders of all SAARC nations went out even as the results came in, and the message of “Neighbourhood First” was sent out when leaders of all neighbouring countries (with the exception of Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina). This time around, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is understood to have had held a senior level meeting in early May to discuss who would be in invited, and asked for “creative suggestions” on whom to invite. Will the neighbours be called back for swearing in ceremony 2.0, or will there be others? Will any foreign leader even be included this time around? Party insiders say something out-of-the-box will definitely be thought of.
Neighbourhood travel
Traditionally, the first bilateral visit by any Prime Minister has been to a country in the SAARC neighbourhood. In 2014, PM Modi made his first visit abroad after taking oath, to Bhutan, and the speculation is that once again, Bhutan will be on his agenda for travel early in his tenure. Bhutan and India celebrated their 50th year of diplomatic ties in 2018, and it had been hoped that PM Modi would visit during the year. Bhutan’s newly elected PM Dr. Lotay Tshering visited New Delhi in December, and was the first in the neighbourhood countries to telephone him on Thursday, when he repeated his invitation for PM Modi to visit. Bhutan’s King Jigme Kesar Namgyel Wangchuck also spoke to PM Modi on Thursday. PM Modi also spoke to Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina and the leaders “agreed to identify dates for a meeting at the earliest”, an MEA release said. The PM has visited Maldives and Nepal in the past year, so those may not be immediately on the list. The big question remains about whether he will finally attend the SAARC summit due to be held in Pakistan, which he had cancelled attending after the Uri attacks in 2016. Much will depend on a possible meeting with Pakistan PM Imran Khan on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Bishkek next month, and the progress on the Kartarpur Sahib Gurudwara corridor between India and Pakistan being constructed ahead of the 350th birth anniversary of Sikh Found Guru Nanak, due in November.
Upcoming Summits
In June alone, Mr. Modi will travel to two major multilateral summits, where he will meet with world leaders: On June 13-14, the Prime Minister is due to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, where leaders of Russia, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asian countries will be present. While a possible meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan will be most closely watched, the summit is expected to see a focus on the faltering peace process in Afghanistan, which all SCO countries are involved in.
Later in the month, on June 28-29, the Prime Minister will travel to Osaka, Japan, to attend the G-20 summit, a forum for the world’s top GDP countries to discuss the global economy. India will host the G-20 summit in 2022. Mr. Modi has also been invited by French Premier Emmanuelle Macron to attend the G-7 summit on August 24-26, as an invitee to the summit that gathers the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. On both occasions, officials will be working on a possible bilateral meeting between PM Modi and US President Donald Trump, given that the two leaders haven’t had a stand-alone summit since June 2017, and have only met once for a pull-aside in November 2017, and as part of a trilateral meet with Japan in 2018.
Trade issues
Apart from the scheduled travel, the PM’s immediate task will be to deal with several potential foreign policy crises that have been put off until after the elections. During the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s visit to Delhi last week, the government said it would announce its decision on US sanctions on Iran oil imports once the election results came in. Indian importers have already stopped placing orders for Iranian oil, fearing the sanctions; the rising price of oil and the need for non-expensive alternatives will be a challenge for the new government. In addition, US sanctions on Russian military hardware like the upcoming S-400 missile defence purchases will be another area of concern with Washington. In addition, the US could soon announce its withdrawal of GSP status to Indian exports, while India has to decide on retaliatory tariffs against the US if a trade deal between the two countries fails to fructify.
Finally, India has to decide by a November deadline on whether to join the agreement for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership of free trade agreement between ASEAN countries and China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. With the elections out of the way, the government has a freer hand to deal with tricky issues of trade that would have seemed unpopular during the campaign.