Saffron Brigade May Not Have The Resounding Success Of 2014

Nagpur: That the saffron siblings Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena may retain all ten seats like it did in 2010 is most unlikely. But, then, any chances of them losing more than two seats looks highly unlikely.
This is because despite their best efforts the Congress-Nationalist Party combine could not channelize the “anger against Narendra Modi’s policies” into a force that could overpower the silent Modi wave. If the Modi-haters’ number has gone up in last five years, the young and first-time voters’ army could bail out the BJP.
The strongest winner for BJP could be Nitin Gadkari from Nagpur who looks set to romp home by the sheer dint of his development record. His rival Nana Patole of the Congress was so desperate that he relied only on caste and community crutches to stay afloat in the fight.
All is fair in such poll-battle. But there is no empirical evidence to suggest Nagpur voter having ever decided to vote purely on the candidate’s caste.
The rural seat of Ramtek is witnessing a tough fight between Shiv Sena’s Krupal Tumane trying to retain his seat against newcomer Kishore Gajbhiye who did not get enough time to familiarize himself with the vast constituency spread around Nagpur city. Tumane’s earthy charm and simplicity, and connect with voters looks enough to pay dividends against a Gajbhiye who is trying to show off his IAS background.
In Bhandara-Gondia seat, an arguably low-profile Sunil Mendhe of the BJP is giving a tough fight to Nana Panchbudhe of the NCP. Mendhe managed to get a winning edge thanks to the BJP’s organizational strength in Praful Patel’s backyard where voters are decidedly loyal only to him for his high profile and to none else.
In Gadchiroli, BJP’s sitting MP Ashok Nete looked on a weak ground at the start against Congress’ Namdeo Usendi. But, once again, the strong BJP network rallied around him in the last week or so of the campaign to give him that edge to scrape through.
In Wardha, Charulata Tokas of the Congress could have dealt a knockout to sitting BJP MP Ramdas Tadas. But then she failed to get necessary boost from the party and had few workers doing the legwork. The Modi rally in which he polarized the voters by blaming Congress for inventing the saffron terror tag was also Tokas’ undoing.
In Akola, Sanjay Dhotre of the BJP, seeking a fourth term in a row, was seen as a sure-shot winner even before he got into active campaign. The secular vote there could get split between a reluctant Congress candidate Hidayat Patel and Vanchit Aghadi leader Prakash Ambedkar.
Similarly, the Buldhana seat could once again be retained by sitting Sena MP Prataprao Jadhav on strength of the strong party apparatus against an otherwise tough opponent Rajendra Shingane of the NCP.
So that leaves with the two or rather three weak links this time of the BJP-Sena who could lose. There is a strong chance of incumbency hitting Bhavana Gawali of the Sena in Yavatmal-Washim seat. Seeking a record sixth term in a row from that seat, she is facing a stiff challenge from Congress warhorse Manikrao Thakre.
The biggest upset then for the BJP could be in Chandrapur where Hansraj Ahir is seen to be tottering against Sanjay (Balu) Dhanorkar who was roped into the fray by the Congress at the last minute. Dhanorkar, till then a Sena MLA from Warora, was given Congress ticket just to play on his Kunbi roots.
The third seat where the saffron combine looks a bit weak but with even chances of winning or losing by a slender margin is Amravati where Sena MP Anandrao Adsul is facing a fight from Navneet Rana. In this reserved (SC) seat NCP is supporting Rana. Adsul is a Mumbai native who descends in the region only to contest elections.