An anti-cylconic circulation in the South Bay of Bengal may start breaking up later today (Tuesday), allowing the monsoon flows greater access into the larger Bay from tomorrow (Wednesday).
The flows would gradually ramp up in speed and intensity likely culminating in the formation of a low-pressure area (or even a depression) close to South Myanmar by the end of the month.
‘Strong monsoon conditions’
A dipping trough over North-East India as part of an itinerant western disturbance would contribute its own mite into the process, and step up stormy conditions over the northern parts of the Bay.
Meanwhile, the Thailand Met Department said that strong South-West monsoon flows prevail over the Andaman Sea on Tuesday and warned of moderate wind waves.
The waves could lift up to about a height of two metres and two to three metres high in areas frequented by thunder showers. All ships have been advised to proceed with caution.
“Strong monsoon conditions would prevail during the next five to six days,” the Thai Met said, marked by moderate wind waves both in the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand.
The annual rain season of Thailand this year is expected to begin by the the end of this week and will go on until the middle of October. Total rainfall is expected to be will 5-10 per cent below normal this year.
However, during the middle of the rainy season (July until August) and the end of the rainy season (September till mid-October), the total rainfall could claw its way back to become near-normal.
Favourable conditions
India Met Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that the monsoon has not made a progress the South Andaman Sea and adjoining South Bay where it had announced a timely arrival on Saturday. It maintained that conditions are favourable for its further advance more parts of South Bay, the North Andaman Sea, and the Andaman Islands during the next three days.
The monsoon has always been to known to progress in fits and starts, aided by pulsating rain bands powered by the moisture-laden south-westerly flows from across the Equator and along the warm seas.
Available indications are suggest that the flows are waiting to break free at the first available opportunity, represented in the instant case by the impending collapse of a rogue circulation.
Helpful atmospheric features continued to show up on Tuesday — a shear zone of monsoon turbulence with an embedded cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area and neighbourhood. A second feature is the cyclonic circulation over South Tamil Nadu and adjoining Gulf of Mannar, while a third one persisted on the spot over the South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood.
Thunderstorms forecast
Elsewhere, a trough ran down all the way from the hills of Bengal into a cyclonic circulation over South Interior Karnataka across South Chhattisgarh and Telangana. Towards the North, a western disturbance persists over Jammu & Kashmir, which will cause isolated to scattered rain over the hills and isolated rain/thundershowers over the adjoining plains until Thursday.
In view of the line-up of these atmospheric formations, the IMD has come out with varied forecast outlook for the rest of the country for the two days (Tuesday and Wednesday) as follows:
Tuesday: Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied with (i) gusty winds (50 km/hr) at over South Interior Karnataka, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura; (ii) with gusty winds (40 km/hr) over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, West Madhya Pradesh, hills of Bengal, Sikkim and Odisha.
Dust storms/thunderstorms accompanied with gusty winds (40 km/hr) over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Heat wave conditions over Telangana, Rayalaseema, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Odisha.
Wednesday: Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied with (ii) squall (60 km/hr) over hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura; (ii) gusty winds (50 km/hr) over South Interior Karnataka and Odisha; and (iii) gusty winds (40 km/hr) over Kerala, Telangana, West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, plains of Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Dust storms/thunderstorms accompanied with gusty winds (40 km/hr) over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Heavy rain over hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.
Heat wave conditions over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and Vidarbha.
Strong wind with speeds reaching 50 km/hr along and off Bengal and Odisha coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the ea over these areas.
May 26 to 28: Isolated to scattered rainfall likely over North-West and South Peninsular India with isolated heavy rainfall over South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over North-East India with isolated heavy rainfall over South Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura.