Minutes before voting in the final round of India’s marathon elections ended on Sunday evening and the country starts looking at exit poll projections, senior BJP minister Prakash Javadekar came up with his own prediction and a warning about the reliability of exit polls.

“Today from 5 pm onwards #ExitPoll will start predictions but #ExactPoll on 23rd May will give us the actual results,” the education minister tweeted his cautionary note.

Prakash Javadekar also predicted the BJP’s victory in the elections. “Narendramodi ji will come back with more seats than in 2014,” he said, sharing his analysis.

In the 2014 general election, the BJP won 282 seats and became the first party in 30 years to secure a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won 336.

Javadekar’s projection is in line with PM Modi and Amit Shah’s prediction that the BJP would return to power with over 300 seats in the 543-member house. Voting has been held on only 542 seats since elections to the Vellore seat had been cancelled after a huge cash haul in the constituency.

“I guarantee you that the BJP, under Narendra Modi’s leadership, is going to form the next government. People have been ahead of us in their determination to form a Modi government once again,” Amit Shah told reporters at a Press conference earlier this week.

Exit polls had accurately predicted Narendra Modi’s victory in the 2014 general elections but there have been many instances when these surveys have been off the mark. Exit polls are based on responses of the people who have cast their votes. Pollsters assume that the voters have correctly revealed their choice and predict the results much before the actual counting of votes. Also since the sample size for exit polls is only a fraction of the total voters, the accuracy also depends on the seats where this exercise is carried out.

Here is a look at exit poll numbers:

First Published: May 19, 2019 18:20 IST