NEW DELHI: Exit polls released on Sunday mostly pegged a majority for the BJP-led NDA, which analysts say is largely in line with Street expectations. They see a gap-up opening on Monday, even as Dalal Street’s reaction may not go overboard. By election results day, they feel, Nifty may attempt to hit 11,700, sustenance of which, will depend on how many seats the BJP gets on its own.

Times NOW-VMR pegs BJP and its allies getting 306 seats, well beyond 272 needed to retain power. Republic-CVoter sees BJP-led NDA winning 287 seats, while News Nation’s poll estimates NDA seats in the 223-290 range.

Rusmik Oza, Head of Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities said the buffer between the NDA projection and halfway mark looks reasonable and a gap-up start is likely.

This analyst feels that Nifty could hit the 11,700 level by May 23. But whether such a level will sustain will depend on whether the BJP on its own comes to power.

Oza added that a lot of institutional money waiting at the sidelines should come back to the market. HNIs and ultra HNIs may take high exposure to equities by May 23, he said.

“As per exit polls, the NDA should easily cross the halfway mark. This is what the market has already discounted. Investors would have received the rude shock, if the NDA was to fall short of majority. It would have forced the BJP to reach out to other parties, which could have complicated the matter. The market should cheer and any downside should be limited,” said Ajay Bodke of Prabhudas Lilladher.

All exit polls indicate vote for stability with a clear majority for the NDA, tweeted Nirmal Jain, Founder & Chairman of IIFL Group. "??Market will heave a sigh of relief. Let’s look forward to reforms continuing and economy getting stronger," he added.

Joseph Thomas, Head Research- Emkay Wealth Management said the exit polls broadly indicated the return of the current dispensation for another term. This may be good from the continuity perspective as far as basic social and economic policies are concerned, Thomas said.

According to Umesh Mehta, Head of Research at Samco Securities, the market will not cheer exit poll numbers much. “A gap-up on Monday may not promise a strong close,” he adds. That said, Mehta also sees 11,700 a reachable target.

“The Nifty at max may trade in a 300-point range in the coming days. The index should oscillate between 11,700 and 10,800 by the Union Budget. For traders, any rise could be an opportunity to sell. Global factors will overrule once the coming week is over. It will now be the Union budget, which will hold the key for the market,” Mehta said.

The expert added that in the last three years, 30 countries have gone to poll, at max the poll days have seen 2.9 per cent move, a minimum of just 0.1 per cent.

That said, history suggests that exit polls are notorious and, thus, one must take them with a pinch of salt.

In the last three elections, exit poll results were not-so-accurate.

In 2004, exit polls wrongly forecasted BJP-led NDA coalition winning again, while in 2009, they grossly underestimated the Congress-led UPA's seat share, said foreign brokerage UBS in a note.

“In 2014, while exit polls correctly predicted a BJP-led NDA victory, they significantly underestimated the margin of victory,” UBS said.

The market is likely to see one of its most volatile days in the coming week, said Milan Vaishnav of Vadodara-based Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services.

On Friday, the BSE Sensex climbed 537.29 points, or 1.44 per cent, to 37,930.77, while the NSE barometer zipped passed 11,400-mark.