Polling for the final phase of the Lok Sabha election is due on Sunday, but the BJP says it has the satisfaction of running a campaign pretty much up to script.
From national security to the hard Hindutva messaging, to trying to fashion a vote bank of laabhaarthis or welfare beneficiaries, senior leaders maintained that whatever the result on May 23, the campaign did not throw up too many curveballs.
The main aim of the campaign was to have it revolve around the personality of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which was, going into the polls, still the biggest advantage with the BJP.
The BJP has dropped nearly 40% of the sitting MPs but anti-incumbency against those repeated on seats was going to be a problem from the outset. The idea of every vote going straight to make Mr. Modi Prime Minister rather than to an individual candidate was pushed at every meeting by BJP leaders including Mr. Modi. “Aap button dabayiye aur seedha vote Modi ko Pradhan Mantri banayega [you press the button to directly make Modi the Prime Minister],” was a line repeated not just by senior leaders but by Mr. Modi himself. This was to circumvent the appeal of local factors in individual seats as well as other factors like economic slowdown, rural distress etc.
National security
The Balakot air strikes and the listing of Masood Azhar as a global terrorist by the United Nations was used to build up a narrative of a government that gave much importance to national security. “Ghar main ghus kar maara [we hit them inside their homes]” was again a phrase much in vogue. In fact, sources in the BJP say the counter (whether successful or not) to Congress’ “Chowkidar Chor Hai” narrative over the Rafale deal by “Main bhi Chowkidar (I too am a Chowkidar)” could only have been possible after these events. “It gave us an in, for a campaign that could mitigate some effects of the Congress’ campaign,” said a source.
For the last three years, BJP president Amit Shah had been speaking about reaching out to beneficiaries of the Centre’s welfare schemes, to create a caste neutral constituency of the poor. The party set up 161 call centres across the country with 15,682 callers assigned to reach out to nearly 24 crore beneficiaries of Central schemes. Mr. Modi also made it a point to interact with a few beneficiaries at most of his 142 rallies in a little tent built behind the main stage at rally grounds. The Laabhaarthi as a category of voter is crucial according to the BJP if it has to have any hope of circumventing the formidable arithmetic of Opposition alliances especially in Uttar Pradesh.
Hard Hindutva
The fielding of Pragya Singh Thakur chargesheeted in the Malegaon case from Bhopal raised a controversy everywhere but, according to the party served to signal hard Hindutva, which Prime Minister Modi’s decision not to go in for a legislative route for the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya had blunted to some extent. The “stand” against “Hindu terror” was marketed as an ideological goal realised in realpolitik, but it was also meant to push secularism in the background in the race to prove who was a “better Hindu”. The gains from this strategy have been mixed, according to senior BJP men.
New ground
Four years ago Mr. Shah had come out with a list of 113 seats (later brought up to 120) where the party had not won ever but recorded a decent vote share in 2014 and deputed 3,000 full time party workers across 13 States to help focus on efforts to cultivate the political ground. West Bengal and Odisha were on the party’s radar. The BJP also made sure that Mr. Modi held 17 rallies in West Bengal, the largest number after Uttar Pradesh, where he addressed 29 rallies. With the party convinced that it had maxed out in the Hindi heartland States in 2014, this was one way of trying to spread out the catchment area of seats.
While the campaign went off more or less to plan, it will of course be revealed on May 23 whether it was a plan that brought forth the desired results.