Trump-Kushner immigration proposal will lead to greater brain drain

WASHINGTON: In yet another shot at immigration reform that eluded both his Democratic and Republican predecessors, US President Donald Trump will unveil proposals on Thursday that will favor merit- and skill-based immigration while reducing the current emphasis on family-based immigration.
For India, the proposed changes, which have to meet legislative approval to become law, could mean a significant transformation in the kind of people who can immigrate to the US: Educated, English-speaking aspirants with specific skills, job offers, and ability to assimilate into American culture will get preference over those who immigrate merely on the basis of sponsorship from spouses, siblings, and even cousins.
The proposals are the work of President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and is said to be backed enthusiastically by the President. But early previews of the proposed changes, which Trump is scheduled to unveil in a White House event later on Thursday, suggest they would not get congressional approval because it displeases too many lawmakers in both Republican and Democratic ranks.
For one, the middle-of-the-road proposals do not envisage a net decrease in immigration, as demanded by Trump’s hardline nativist constituency, or even a reduction in Green Cards, the permanent residency permit that typically paves way to citizenship. On the other hand, it does not also address issues of more than 11 million undocumented workers, including two million the so-called “Dreamers” (people brought into he US as children), a major Democratic demand.
Many lawmakers and immigration activists — both for and against — were visibly underwhelmed by the proposals and some of them pronounced it “dead on arrival,” saying it will never pass Congress. Congress was not able to pass immigration reform laws even during the two terms of President Barack Obama and George Bush when the political atmosphere was less toxic and there was greater bipartisanship.
But should Trump put his shoulder to the wheel and somehow get the proposals through Congress, it will fundamentally alter the immigrant mix coming to the United States.
The US current issues more than 1 million green cards each year granting foreigners legal permanent residency (which typically leads to citizenship), of which about 140,000 (12 per cent) are based on employment and the rest on family ties, refugees status, and a diversity lottery. Under the Kushner proposal, those numbers would be broadly reversed, with nearly 60 percent of all visas going to immigrants with particular skills or offers of employment.
The change would increase the overall education level of immigrants, attracting foreign graduates and those with advanced degrees, and increase the current average salary for immigrants from $43,000 to $ 96,000. This would effectively bump up US tax collection and revenues and underwrite the expenses of its demographic aging.
For India, it could also mean losing more of its best and the brightest, many of who chose to bolt for greener pastures citing lack of opportunity and a debilitating ecosystem at home. It will also be a blow to the constituency that flees India by seeking asylum by claiming persecution and those who immigrate through the family ties route.