Visiting Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif was told by Indian external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj that a call on oil purchases from Iran will be taken after the Lok Sabha polls keeping in mind India’s commercial considerations, energy security and economic interests. This is a sensible position given that suitable adjustments may need to be made after a new government is formed in New Delhi. But there are several reasons why India should find ways to continue buying oil from Iran, while convincing the US that it is a strategic necessity for India.
First, Iran is the third largest supplier of oil for India and meets around 10% of its total needs. Thus, replacing Iranian oil will be difficult and expensive. Second, the latter is crucial for India’s Afghanistan policy. With Pakistan looking to regain its strategic depth in Afghanistan through the Taliban — with whom even the US is talking now — it is only Iran that can provide India leverage here by facilitating trade and other exchanges with Kabul via its own territory. India’s investment in the Chabahar port in Iran exemplifies this strategy.
Given intensifying Iran-US tensions India finds itself in a difficult spot, as it has friendly relations with both. Finessing the issue will be one of the foreign policy challenges faced by the next government.
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