The countdown to southwest monsoon 2019 has begun, and depending on who you ask, the rains will reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands either this weekend or the middle of the following week. Skymet, India's leading weather forecasting and agri risk monitoring company, is predicting a sluggish start to the monsoon season this year, hitting the Bay of Bengal Islands around May 22 and making onset over Kerala on June 4, with an error margin of two days.
However, according to the India Met Department (IMD), "scattered to fairly widespread rainfall [is] likely over northwest & northeast India and Bay Islands" over May 19-21, while "isolated to scattered rainfall" is expexcted over the south peninsula, eastern India and the Lakshadweep islands. Southwest monsoon typically sets in over Kerala around June 1 and it advances northwards, usually in surges, covering the entire country by mid-month.
Here are a few things to know about the coming monsoon, which contributes around 70% of the country's annual rainfall:
It may get delayed
According to The Hindu Business Line, at least one global model - the earliest available forecast by NCEP-GFS, but subject to change - that suggests that the monsoon might run into a rogue circulation in the Arabian Sea. This circulation may take shape over the East-Central Arabian Sea, intensify, and chart a course away into the open waters towards Yemen/Oman. In the bargain, the arrival of the rains over Kerala gets delayed till the rogue system dies out and the sea waters regain the kinetic energy to rustle up the moisture for the onset.
PV Joseph, monsoon researcher and a former IMD director, told the daily last week that he sees a delay of at least a week in the onset of Monsoon 2019, on the basis of the pre-monsoon rain peak (PMRP) phenomenon in the Bay. It is represented by a band of rain clouds extending from Kerala eastwards into the Bay, which should form around April 21 for a normal monsoon onset. He added that this year it occurred 10 days late.
It may be lesser than normal
"All the four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall this season. East and Northeast India and central parts will be poorer than Northwest India and South Peninsula," predicted According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet Weather. "It seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over Peninsular India is going to be slow."
According to the pie chart drawn up by Skymet, there is a 55% chance that this monsoon will be 'below normal' to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/-5%). Seasonal rainfall that is 90-95% of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the June to September period is considered to be below normal. It pegs the chances of a normal monsoon at just 30%, while there is a 15% probability of a drought.
Impact on the Kharif crop
A delayed monsoon could impact the Kharif crop season at a time much of the country is facing agricultural distress. Last year, the IMD had predicted rainfall of 97% of the LPA, but by the end of the season, the country received 91% rainfall. In the bargain, as per a statement by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare last June, the total sowing area of Kharif crops had declined by over 20% year-on-year.
Sushmita Choudhury Agarwal with PTI inputs