Malwa-Nimar Diary
Sanjay Vyas

• Ensured withdrawal of Jayas and rebel candidates
• Earlier there was triangular contest on all three seats
• Pacified disgruntled ex-MP in Dhar
• Now there is direct contest between Congress and BJP on all three seats

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath has ensured withdrawal of Jayas and rebel candidates at Dhar, Ratlam and Khandwa seats. Earlier there was triangular contest on all three seats. Nath was successful in pacifying the disgruntled ex-MP in Dhar. Now there is direct contest between Congress and BJP on all three seats

It is said that the way to the Madhya Pradesh Assembly goes through Malwa-Nimar. The way the region swings in the Assembly also impacts the eight Lok Sabha seats here in the General Election the following year.

Together, the Indore and Ujjain divisions account for 66 constituencies in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly and eight of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Consider this: In the 2013 Assembly poll, the BJP won 56 of these 66 seats, the Congress nine and the remaining one seat went to an Independent.

The results were duly reflected in the saffron sweep in Malwa-Nimar in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 when the BJP won all eight seats — Dhar, Indore, Dewas, Ujjain, Ratlam-Jhabua, Mandsaur, Khandwa and Khargone. The Congress wrested Ratlam-Jhabua in 2015 byelection.

In the 2018 Assembly elections, the Congress won around 35 (38 if rebels who later rejoined it are counted) and the BJP 28 Assembly constituencies.

Now, if these wins in the state poll are extrapolated to the current situation, the Congress could be headed for significant gains in the saffron stronghold.With hardly any visible wave/undercurrent and the Congress giving as good a fight as it can with its government in power, its leaders are claiming a gain of “at least four extra seats from the region”.

Voters silent

Local issues are not prominent in this elecytion and it is difficult to gauge voters’ mood. Based on calculations and past experience, observers believe that the Congress and BJP could end up with four seats each or 5-3 in favour of the saffron party in the region that serves as the financial, agricultural, political and cultural nerve centre of MP.

While Indore is the financial capital, religious town Ujjain is also a political and cultural nerve centre. Mandsaur, meanwhile, has emerged as the epicentre of farmers’ agitations that led to the ouster of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government in 2018. But as per Neeraj Gautam, a BJP supporter from Indore, it was all a Congress-generated unrest as the BJP did pretty well in the region after all.

The Congress believes its farm loan waiver, schemes like NYAY and decisions by Chief Minister Kamal Nath to woo industries and small enterprises are pushing it towards the finish line.

Umapati Bhargav, a farmer from Guna, here in Ujjain to visit the famous Mahakal temple, claims that farmers in his area have not received even the first tranche of Rs 2,000 under the Narendra Modi government’s PM-Kisan scheme.

He also has issues with the Congress-led state government regarding the support price of soyabean and other grains. Farmers continue to suffer, he adds.

War on social media

Both parties are very active on the social media. The BJP hopes to ride on the prevailing dissatisfaction among farmers, nationalism and the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Interestingly, the Malwa region has also scored the highest in his pet Swachh mission with its cities Indore and Ujjain ranking among the highest.

Elections will be held here in the seventh phase. It is relatively quiet around here at this time, but the action will start happening after the sixth phase elections get over. Meanwhile, all eyes are on whether Malwa-Nimar will follow the set precedent.

In the Dewas Lok Sabha constituency in Malwa-Nimar, two “apolitical” candidates, Prahlad Tipania of Congress and Mahendra Solanki of BJP, are in the contest.

While Solanki was a civil judge, Padma Shri Tipanya is a renowned folk singer from the Malwa region. Both belong to Balai Samaj that has a sizeable vote share in Dewas.