Lok Sabha elections: Trinamool desperate for home comfort in polls’ decisive phase

KOLKATA: The vote juggernaut has rolled out in the heart of south Bengal — also the sanctum sanctorum of the Trinamool Congress’s support base in Bengal — on Monday, marking the start of the most critical phase of the dance of democracy in the state.
To look at this fifth of Bengal’s seven-phase polls as a fight for only seven of Lok Sabha’s 543 seats would be a gross underestimation of its importance. For, how the 1,16,72,144 voters of these seats vote will determine not only how close Trinamool Congress is able to get to its leader’s promised tally of “42 out of 42 (seats)” in Bengal but also, probably, the state’s political future.
The BJP has emerged as the Trinamool’s most formidable opponent in large parts of west and north Bengal but all its efforts — and bravado — may amount to nothing much if it fails to make a dent in Trinamool’s south Bengal bastion. In this respect, these seven seats are as important for the BJP in Bengal as Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats are important for it nationally.

A strong show by the Left, even creditable second-place finishes, in most of these seven seats will push back BJP’s dream of wresting Nabanna from Mamata Banerjee beyond 2021; it will also help Banerjee marshal her forces for the 2021 state elections. Conversely, a strong showing by Narendra Modi’s party in south Bengal will add momentum to its west- and north-Bengal efforts. A strong second-place finish in all these seats will help, taking the process of the Left’s annihilation a little further, but the icing on the BJP’s cake will be a surprise victory in any of these seats.

Barrackpore represents this interestingly developing fight more than any other constituency in this phase. BJP candidate Arjun Singh was part of Trinamool’s much-vaunted industrial-belt poll machinery till a few weeks ago. He was also the chief opponent of another turncoat, Mukul Roy, in the critical North 24 Parganas district. Now, Singh is the BJP’s face in this bellwether seat, Roy is his senior in his new party and he takes on Trinamool incumbent Dinesh Trivedi who, too, has had his rebel days in Trinamool.
A strong Trinamool showing in these seats will help Bengal CM Banerjee’s short- and long-term agenda. It will add crucial numbers to her party’s strength in the 17th Lok Sabha and help her become a nucleus for anti-Modi forces if the BJP and the NDA fail to reach the halfway mark.
But, even more crucially for her, a strong showing here will help her show Modi that the urban and suburban middle-class, which the BJP has wooed in several ways, remains firmly with her. It will also help her keep her flock together as many first-, second- and third-rung politicians of every hue make up their mind on which jersey colour to wear for the 2021 state polls; Modi’s pre-poll bluster (“40 Trinamool MLAs” are waiting to switch over) will remain that — pre-poll bluster — if Banerjee’s party can push BJP back in south Bengal. Howrah and Serampore, too, are important in this respect but a different battle is playing out in Bongaon. This is the seat where Trinamool’s and BJP’s experiments with identity politics — which has been largely subdued in Bengal by class and party politics — will be played out. The death of Matua community leader ‘Barama’ Binapani Devi has left a sort of succession battle in its wake and Banerjee’s and Modi’s parties find themselves on opposite sides of the divide.
Monday’s in the more rural seats of Uluberia, Hooghly and Arambag will test BJP’s organisational skills and tell its national leaders whether their party can stand up to the Trinamool's might in Bengal.
How Monday’s vote goes will also influence the even more crucial penultimate and final phases of election. Poor marshalling of forces by the BJP has the potential to deflate its workers in the 17 constituencies that will go to vote on May 12 and 19; a strong fightback will enthuse its workers to reach for greater glory. Conversely, if all goes according to Trinamool’s plans on Monday, it will act as the perfect dress rehearsal for its machinery in the last two phases; a poor show here can lead to more desperate measures in the last two phases.
In all this heat and dust, an MLA who aspires to become an MP has suddenly become very important in the overall scheme of things. Arjun Singh and Barrackpore may not determine who India’s next PM will be. But their fate will tell us whether Bengal is still enthralled by its home-grown, botany-defying “ghash-phool”, or wants to smell a new flower.