BJP, Cong poll pundits claim victory in city on WhatsApp

Nagpur: Even as three weeks are still remaining for counting of votes, both BJP and Congress workers are claiming victory in the city. They have calculated their candidate’s win on the basis of various factors, mostly caste and community voting, and these claims are doing rounds on WhatsApp. Due to influential position held by the BJP candidate Nitin Gadkari, such messages are being circulated throughout the country.
As per Congress supporters’ calculations, Nana Patole is winning by a margin of 38,000 to 1.60 lakh votes, while BJP supporters are claiming a victory margin between 2.30 lakh and 2.90 lakh for Gadkari. While Congress leaders said that they do not have a detailed calculation, a BJP leader, who has done in-depth analysis, said the margin of victory for Gadkari would be between 2.30 lakh and 2.50 lakh.
According to bookies, Gadkari is winning comfortably but his margin would reduce as compared to 2014 polls (2.85 lakh). The BJP candidate’s rate is around 10 paise while Patole’s rate is between Rs5 and Rs10. This implies that according to satta market, Patole has no chance of winning. The prediction of Intelligence Bureau (IB) and special branch (SB) is similar to bookies.
According to a news channel, an astrologer from Satara — Jalindra Mali — has predicted victory for Gadkari. Mali had recently successfully answered 21 out of 25 questions posed by Andhashraddha Nirmulan Samiti.
The BJP leader told TOI that Gadkari would win by a minimum margin of 2.30 lakh. “We will get a lead of 65,000 from Nagpur southwest assembly segment, 80,000 in east, 50,000 in south, 20,000 in west and 25,000 in central. The margin in Nagpur north will be plus or minus 5,000,” he said.
According to him, Patole will poll around 4 lakh votes due to increased voting by Dalits, Muslims and Kunbis in his favour. “Last time, 35% Kunbis had voted for Vilas Muttemwar. This time, for argument’s sake, we are assuming that it will be 50% in the worst case scenario. We, however, feel that about 60% Kunbis voted for us. In that case, our margin will be well over 2.5 lakh,” he said.
The leader feels that BSP candidate Mohammed Jamal will poll around 50,000 votes, Sagar Dabrase of Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi 20,000 and Suresh Mane of BRSP another 20,000. “Congress supporters are claiming victory because the party votes will increase from 3 lakh polled by Muttemwar to 4 lakh,” he said.
A calculation done by another BJP worker, however, puts the victory margin at 2.90 lakh votes.
A calculation done by Congress worker shows that Patole was winning by a margin of 1,13,932 votes. He has estimated that 28% population of the voters are Kunbi (Patole’s caste) and 65% of them have voted for Congress. Some 13% are Telis and 20% have supported Patole. He has estimated that 40% Dalits voted for Patole while 20% voted for Gadkari and remaining 40% for others. Around 75% Muslims have voted for Congress, 8% for BJP and rest for others. According to the leader, the population of upper caste Marathi community and non-Marathis is 18% and their voting percentage is only 35%.
Commenting on the calculations, a Congress leader said these are baseless. “There is no census data for calculating population of various castes of Hindus. Secondly, how can you calculate their voting percentage. Thirdly, how can you say that this many have voted for Congress or BJP,” he said adding that according to him Patole was giving a tough fight to Gadkari and the latter’s claim of victory margin of 5 lakh was ridiculous.
A constituency-wise calculation done by a Congress supporter, however, shows a margin of only 38,000 for Patole. According to him, Gadkari will trail by 20,000 in Nagpur South-West.
THE CALCULATIONS
CONGRESS
Nana Patole is winning by a margin of 38,000 to 1.60 lakh votes
Patole will get 65% Kunbi votes, 20% Teli votes, 40% Dalit votes
Around 75% Muslims voted for Congress
Gadkari will trail by 20,000 in Nagpur South-West
BJP
Nitin Gadkari’s victory margin will be between 2.30 lakh and 2.90 lakh votes
BJP’s lead will be 65,000 from Nagpur southwest, east 80,000, south 50,000, west 20,000, central 25,000, Nagpur north +_5,000
Patole will poll around 4 lakh votes due to increased voting by Dalits, Muslims and Kunbis in his favour
BSP’s Mohammed Jamal will poll around 50,000 votes, Sagar Dabrase of VBA 20,000 and Suresh Mane of BRSP 20,000