The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing a tough challenge from the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) on seven of the 12 seats in Uttar Pradesh in the next phase of the Lok Sabha polls.
If the votes polled by the MGB constituents Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2014 -- when they had contested separately -- are taken into account, the BJP's road to victory will become tougher in at least seven seats which it had won last time.
If SP and BSP are able to hold on to their committed voters, the going will be tougher for the BJP in Bahraich, Mohanlalganj, Sitapur, Kaisarganj, Kaushambhi, Banda and Dhaurahra. The BJP can effectively tackle the MGB factor in Gonda, Faizabad, Lucknow, Barabanki and Fatehpur.
The phase is crucial for the Congress as well, as fate of several of its leaders is on line, including party president Rahul Gandhi and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi. Prominent young Congress leader Jitin Prasada is facing a tough battle in Dhaurhara, a seat he has represented twice in the past. Another senior leader P.L. Punia's son Tanuj is locked in a multi-cornered battle in Barabanki.
However, there is a twist in political tale on some seats compared to 2014. In Bahraich, Sadhvi Savitri Bai Foole, who had won on a BJP ticket in 2014 is contesting as the Congress candidate.
In Barabanki, the BJP has not given ticket to sitting MP Priyanka Singh Rawat and gone for MLA Upendra Rawat. The MGB has fielded four time MP Ram Sagar Rawat from this seat.
Even though considered to be an SP stronghold, the BJP seems to have an advantage in the Barabanki battle. The party had got 45,4211 votes in 2014 compared to BSP's 1,67,150 and SP's 1,50,284. The Congress' P.L. Punia had polled 2,42,336. With Congress remaining out of MGB, it is advantage BJP.
Voting will also be held in politically sensitive Faizabad in Awadh from where the BJP has fielded sitting MP Lallu Singh, who will face tough challenge from MGB and the Congress.
Apart from taking on the MGB in the rest of the seats, the BJP is giving tough fight to Rahul Gandhi in Amethi. Gandhi had defeated Smriti Irani of BJP by 1,07,903 votes. He had got 46.71 per cent votes and Irani polled 34.38 per cent. BSP candidate Dharmendra Pratap Singh had got 57,716. This time, it is a direct contest between Congress and the BJP.
The battle for Sonia Gandhi, though appeared to be smooth, who had polled 5,26,434 votes and had won with a margin of over 3.5 lakh against her rivals Ajay Agrawal of the BJP and Pravesh Singh of BSP. BJP has fielded ex-Congress leader Dinesh Pratap Singh against her.
Four seats in phase 5 -- Mohanlalganj, Kaushambi, Barabanki and Bahraich -- are reserved.
Uttar Pradesh phase 5 LS poll equation
Fatehpur (2014)
Winner- Niranjan Jyoti -- BJP -- votes polled 4,85,994
Afzal Siddiqui -- BSP -- 2,98,788
Rakesh Sachan -- SP -- 1,79,724
SP+BSP 4,78,512
Advantage: BJP
Candidates in 2019
Niranjan Jyoti -- BJP
Rakesh Sachan -- UPA
Sukhdev Prasad Verma -- MGB
Mahesh Chandra Sahu -- PDA (Shivpal Yadav's Progressive Democratic Alliance)Banda (2014)
Winner -- Bhairon Prasad Mishra -- BJP -- 3,42,066
Bal Kumar Patel alias Rajkumar -- SP -- 1,89,730
R.K Singh Patel -- BSP -- 2,26,278
SP+BSP 4,16,008
Advantage: MGB
Contestants in 2019
R.K Singh Patel -- BJP
Bal Kumar Patel -- UPA
Shyama Charan Gupta -- MGB
Sunita Devi -- PDA
Lucknow (2014)
Winner: Rajnath Singh -- BJP -- 5,61,196
Rita Bahuguna -- INC -- 2,88,357
Abhishek Mishra -- SP -- 56,771
Nakul Dubey -- BSP -- 64,449
SP+BSP=1,21,220
Advantage: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Rajnath Singh -- BJP
Poonam Sinha -- MGB
Dr. Ramesh Kumar Thukral -- PDA
Barabanki 2014
Winner: Priyanka Singh Rawat - BJP -- 4,54,211
Kamla Prasad Rawat -- BSP -- 1,67,150
P.L. Punia --INC -- 2,42,336
Rajrani Rawat -- SP -- 1,50,284
SP+BSP3,17,434
Advantage: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Upendra Rawat -- BJP
Tanuj Punia -- UPA
Ram Sagar Rawat -- MGB
Bahraich 2014
Winner: Sadhvi Savitri Bai Foole -- BJP -- 4,32,286
Shabbir Ahmad -- SP -- 3,36,696
Dr. Vijay Kumar - BSP -- 96904
SP+BSP4,33,600
Advantage: MGB
Dhaurahra (2014)
Winner: Rekhja -- BJP -- 3,60,357
Anand Bhadauriya -- SP -- 2,34,032
Daud Ahmad -- BSP -- 2,34,682
Jitin Prasad -- INC -- 1,70,994
SP+BSP4,68,724
Advantage: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Rekha -- BJP
Jitin Prasad -- UPA
Arshad Ahmad Siddiqui -- MGB
Malkhan Singh -- PDA
Kaisarganj 2014
Winner: Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh -- BJP -- 3,81,500
Vinod Kumar alias Pandit Singh -- SP -- 3,03,282
Krishna Kumar Ojha -- BSP -- 1,46,726
SP+BSP 4,50,008
Advantage: MGB
Candidates in 2019
Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh -- BJP
Chandradev Ram Yadav -- MGB
Dhananjay Sharma -- PDA
Gonda (2014)
Winner: Kirti Vardhan Singh -- BJP -- 3,59,639
Nandita Shukla -- SP -- 1,99,227
Akbar Ahmad Dumpy -- BSP -- 1,16,178
SP+BSP3,16,005
Advantage: BJP
Contestants in 2019
Kirti Vardhan Singh -- BJP
Krishna Patel -- UPA
Vinod Kr. aka Pandit Singh -- MGB
Kutubuddin Khan alias Diamond -- PDA
Faizabad 2014
Winner: Lallu Singh -- BJP -- 4,91,1761
Jitendra Kr. Singh ( Bablu Bhaiya) -- BSP -- 1,41,824
Mitrasen Yadav -- SP -- 2,08,986
SP+BSP3,50,813
Advantage: BJP
Kaushambhi 2014
Winner : Vinod Kumar Sonkar -- BJP -- 3,31,724
Shailendra Kumar -- SP -- 2,88,824
Suresh Pasi -- BSP - 2,01,322
SP+BSP4,90,146
Advantage: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Vinod Kr. Sonkar -- BJP
Girish Chand Pasi -- UPA
Indrajit Saroj -- MGB
Rajdev-- PDA
Mohanlalganj 2014
Winner: Kaushal Kishore -- BJP -- 4,55,274
R. K Chaudhary -- BSP -- 3,09,858
Sushila Saroj -- SP -- 2,42,366
SP+BSP5,52,224
Advantage: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Kaushal Kishore -- BJP
R.K Chaudhary -- UPA
C.L Verma -- MGB
Ganesh Rawat -- PDA
Sitapur 2014
Winner: Rajesh Verma -- BJP -- 4,17,546
Kaiser Jahan -- BSP 3,66,519
Bharati Tripathi -- SP -- 1,56,170
SP+BSP5,22,689
Adantage: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Rajesh Verma -- BJP
Kaisar Jahan -- UPA
Nakul Dubey- MGB
VIjay Kumar Mishra -- PDA
Amethi (2014)
Winner: Rahul Gandhi -- INC -- 4,08,651
Smriti Irani -- BJP -- 3,00,748
Dharmendra Pratap Singh -- BSP -- 57,716
Direct fight between Congress and BJP
Contestants in 2019
Rahul Gandhi -- INC
Smriti Irani -- BJP
Rae Bareli 2014
Winner: Sonia Gandhi -- INC -- 5,26,434
Ajay Agrawal - BJP -- 1,73,721
Pravesh Singh -- BSP -- 63,633
Contestants in 2019
Sonia Gandhi --INC
Dinesh Pratap Singh -- BJP
--IANS
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