(Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s inflation is reversing course at just the wrong time for a central bank waiting to undo its crisis-level monetary policy.

Every economist surveyed by Bloomberg predicts consumer prices rose at a faster pace for a second month, following a slowdown of almost 5 percentage points since a currency crash last summer. Data due Friday will show annual inflation climbed to 20.4 percent in April, according to the median of 18 forecasts.

Interest-rate cuts in Turkey remain a question of when, not if, according to most economists. Still, Governor Murat Cetinkaya has warned another round of monetary tightening is possible despite a change in a policy statement last week that removed an explicit pledge to do so. Price pressures abound as inflation still hovers at nearly four times the official target.

“There’s a chance of an upside surprise for inflation in April, mostly driven by food, and this in turn may delay easing,” said Deutsche Bank AG economist Kubilay Ozturk. “Faster inflation could adversely impact pricing behavior and the formation of expectations.”

Earlier this year, Cetinkaya pledged to wait for a “convincing” inflation slowdown before cutting rates, but has been stymied by a weaker lira. Turkey’s currency was the world’s worst performer last month, with a loss of 6.6 percent against the dollar.

For now, the central bank is keeping its inflation projections unchanged for this year and next at 14.6 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively. It’s held the benchmark rate at 24 percent for seven months.

“Should the upside risks to inflation materialize, additional tightening may be delivered,” Cetinkaya said Tuesday in Istanbul. “We maintain that we will keep a tight stance until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.”

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“Year-on-year inflation probably accelerated in April, with higher oil prices and the recent fall in the lira being the main risks. But given the threat of currency instability, consumer prices should for now be of secondary importance to the central bank for setting interest rates.”
--Ziad Daoud, Mideast economist

The government has so far failed to keep food costs in check despite a campaign of threats, fines and deep discounts. Food inflation has hovered near 30 percent in the first quarter, nearly double the central bank’s year-end estimate.

Still, policy makers are expected to start monetary easing in the third quarter and deliver 400 basis points of monetary easing by the end of this year, according to another Bloomberg survey of economists.

Until recently, Morgan Stanley predicted a series of rate cuts that would have lowered the benchmark by 500 basis points in 2019 starting in June. The outlook may no longer hold after currency wobbles.

“Following the recent volatility in the lira, the risk is for fewer or no cuts in the rest of the year,” said Morgan Stanley economist Ercan Erguzel.

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.