April U.S. sales fall 6.1% at FCA US, Toyota; Honda gain
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  2. April U.S. Sales
May 01, 2019 09:30 AM

FCA, Toyota sales fall; Nissan, Honda post gains

David Phillips
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    DAVID PHILLIPS

    Fiat Chrysler's average new-vehicle incentive dropped 5.1 percent to $4,133 in April, ALG said, but remains among the highest among major full-line automakers.

    U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales, April & YTD

      April
    2019
    April
    2018
    %
    change
    4 mos.
    2019
    4 mos.
    2018
    %
    change
    BMW - - - - - -
    Mini - - - - - -
    Rolls-Royce* - - - - - -
    BMW of N.A. - - - - - -
    Alfa Romeo 1,584 1,847 -14.20% 5,870 7,639 -23.20%
    Chrysler 8,987 14,189 -36.70% 40,578 60,422 -32.80%
    Dodge 31,262 40,994 -23.70% 141,779 157,965 -10.20%
    Ram 53,811 43,074 24.90% 190,824 156,728 21.80%
    Fiat 931 1,404 -33.70% 3,145 5,418 -42.00%
    Jeep 76,325 82,641 -7.60% 289,129 310,746 -7.00%
    FCA US 172,900 184,149 -6.10% 671,325 698,918 -3.90%
    Maserati* 925 950 -2.60% 3,700 3,663 1.00%
    Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 173,825 185,099 -6.10% 675,025 702,581 -3.90%
    Ford - - - - - -
    Lincoln - - - - - -
    Ford Motor Co. - - - - - -
    General Motors* - - - - - -
    Acura 11,687 11,888 -1.70% 48,072 45,302 6.10%
    Honda 114,088 113,813 0.20% 447,490 442,890 1.00%
    American Honda Motor Co. 125,775 125,701 0.10% 495,562 488,192 1.50%
    Genesis - - - - - -
    Hyundai brand - - - - - -
    Hyundai Motor America - - - - - -
    Kia Motors America - - - - - -
    Hyundai-Kia - - - - - -
    Jaguar - - - - - -
    Land Rover - - - - - -
    Jaguar Land Rover N.A. - - - - - -
    Mazda N.A. 19,702 23,056 -14.50% 90,535 107,051 -15.40%
    McLaren* 180 125 44.00% 846 445 90.10%
    Mercedes-Benz - - - - - -
    Smart USA - - - - - -
    Mercedes-Benz USA - - - - - -
    Mitsubishi Motors N.A. - - - - - -
    Infiniti - - - - - -
    Nissan - - - - - -
    Nissan Group - - - - - -
    Nissan/Mitsubishi - - - - - -
    Subaru of America - - - - - -
    Tesla Motors* 9,000 7,700 16.90% 36,000 30,800 16.90%
    Lexus 21,360 21,642 -1.30% 88,151 85,859 2.70%
    Scion - - - - 1 -100.00%
    Toyota 162,506 170,706 -4.80% 639,431 678,529 -5.80%
    Toyota/Scion 162,506 170,706 -4.80% 639,431 678,530 -5.80%
    Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. 183,866 192,348 -4.40% 727,582 764,389 -4.80%
    Audi - - - - - -
    Bentley* - - - - - -
    Lamborghini* - - - - - -
    Porsche - - - - - -
    VW - - - - - -
    VW Group Of America - - - - - -
    Volvo Cars N.A. - - - - - -
    Other** 328 321 2.20% 1,312 1,284 2.20%
    U.S. LIGHT VEHICLE 512,676 534,350 -4.10% 2,026,862 2,094,742 -3.20%
    *Estimates.
    **Reflects Aston Martin, Ferrari and Lotus sales estimates.

    FCA US and Toyota Motor Corp. posted lower April U.S. sales while Nissan and Honda managed increases in a month that is expected to see the industry post its first gain of the year, helped in part by an extra selling day.

    FCA reported a 6.1 percent decline in April volume, with higher Ram brand volume offset by weaker Jeep deliveries. Volume dropped 4.4 percent at Toyota Motor behind lower car sales while deliveries rose 0.1 percent at Honda and 9 percent at Nissan. April snapped a 3-month skid for Nissan.

    At FCA, sales rose 25 percent at Ram, with pickup sales jumping 25 percent to 49,106, but volume fell 7.6 percent at Jeep, 24 percent at Dodge, 37 percent at Chrysler and 34 percent at Fiat.

    Sales at Jeep, FCA's biggest division, have now slipped four straight months year over year. In April, Jeep Wrangler demand fell 25 percent and Jeep Cherokee volume dropped 13 percent.

    The company’s U.S. sales have now declined three consecutive months. FCA dialed back on incentives last month but the company is still offering some of the highest discounts among major automakers.

    "April marks the start of the spring selling season and we anticipate strong consumer spending as we move through May,” said Reid Bigland, head of U.S. sales for FCA US. "The industry may be shaking off the first-quarter sluggishness, but shoppers are coming into showrooms and buying."

    FCA goes quarterly

    Separately, FCA US, following General Motors and Ford Motor Co., said Wednesday it will no longer report U.S. and Canada sales on a monthly basis following the release of June results.

    “A quarterly sales reporting cadence will continue to provide transparency of our sales results while at the same time aligning with where industry practice is heading,” said Niel Golightly, FCA’s chief communications officer.

    At Toyota, April deliveries fell 4.8 percent at the Toyota division and 1.3 percent at Lexus, with car sales at the two brands falling a combined 14 percent in April and light-truck volume up 1.9 percent. U.S. deliveries at Toyota Motor Sales have now dropped 6 straight months year over year.

    American Honda said volume edged up 0.2 percent at the Honda division but dipped 1.7 percent at Acura. Nissan Motor Co. sales rose behind a 11 percent increase at the Nissan brand, offsetting a 5.2 percent decline at Infiniti.

    Among other automakers, Subaru extended its streak of year over year monthly gains to 89 with April volume rising 7.7 percent. Mazda's sales fell 15 percent, extending its streak of year over year monthly declines to ten. Deliveries dropped 13 percent at Mitsubishi.

    April outlook

    Other automakers will report April sales results later today and overall industry volume is projected to rise slightly, with lower retail volume offset by higher fleet shipments.

    While U.S. unemployment remains at historic lows, rising interest rates and record-high new-vehicle prices continue to undermine retail demand, analysts say, driving more shoppers to used-car lots.

    April can be a pivotal month, as tax refunds come in and warmer weather entices consumers to get out and drive. With U.S. new-vehicle sales down 3.2 percent in the first quarter and inventories piling up some automakers and dealers ratcheted up promotions to jump into the spring selling season.

    VW offered many 2019 leases that required “zero down, zero deposit, zero payment for the first month.” Some Fiat Chrysler dealers deferred payments for three months for consumers that leased a new Jeep. And some Honda dealers tried to entice consumers with 36-month leases on a CR-V LX for $272 a month and just $1 down.

    Most analysts expect U.S. light-vehicle sales to drop below 17 million in 2019 for the first time since 2014. In the first quarter, sales ran at a 16.8 million rate.

    J.D. Power, which expects 2019 U.S. sales to total 16.9 million, says new-model launches should provide a lift in the second half; nearly two-thirds of new models have yet to be launched and the number of redesigned models is forecast to jump 13 percent compared with 2018.

    April incentive outlays for U.S.
    Manufacturer Incentive per unit April 2019 forecast Incentive per unit April 2018 YOY % change
    BMW $5,467 $5,481 -0.2%
    Daimler $5,685 $5,745 -1.0%
    FCA $4,133 $4,354 -5.1%
    Ford $4,078 $4,401 -7.3%
    GM $4,799 $5,239 -8.4%
    Honda $2,120 $1,632 29.9%
    Hyundai $2,447 $2,755 -11.2%
    Kia $3,396 $3,775 -10.0%
    Nissan $3,532 $3,099 14.0%
    Subaru $1,459 $1,344 8.6%
    Toyota $2,205 $2,249 -2.0%
    Volkswagen Group $3,545 $3,578 -0.9%
    Industry $3,488 $3,640 -4.2%
    Source: ALG

    SAAR outlook

    The seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of sales for April is expected to come in at 16.8 million, based on a survey of 10 analysts by Bloomberg, down from 17.42 million in March and April 2018’s 17.25 million rate.

    Major automakers

    Among major automakers, only two are forecast by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg to post higher sales – Honda with a gain of 1.9 percent and Nissan with an increase of 13 percent. April sales are forecast to fall 0.3 percent at General Motors, 4 percent at Ford, 4.3 percent at FCA and 0.7 percent at Toyota, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said.

    GM and Ford no longer release monthly U.S. sales results publicly.

    Incentives

    Average incentive spending was tracking at $3,408 per new vehicle in the early weeks of April, down from $3,708 during the same period last year, J.D. Power said. ALG estimates average incentive spending was $3,488 per vehicle last month, down $152, or 4.2 percent, from April 2018, and down 4.2% from March. While most automakers trimmed discounts, Honda, Nissan and Subaru hiked deals last month, ALG said. (See chart below).

    Fleet factor

    The biggest variable in how April sales will shake out may be fleet shipments.

    J.D. Power says fleet sales are expected to total 325,000 in April, up 2.6 percent from April 2018. Sales of commercial and rental fleet vehicles have been rising, and the trend is likely to continue throughout 2019, Cox Automotive said.

    FCA US said its fleet shipments rose slightly in April to roughly 43,225, or 25 percent of all light-vehicle sales, up from 23 percent of total volume in April 2018.

    In 2018, U.S. fleet deliveries increased nearly 8 percent while retail sales decreased 1 percent.

    Under U.S. tax reform signed into law in late 2017, companies can accelerate depreciation allowances for business fleets.

    “More fleet activity and business-use vehicle purchases are likely to continue in 2019 as more businesses consider the full benefits of the tax changes,” Cox said this month.

    In the first quarter, retail sales of new light vehicles dropped 4 percent while fleet shipments jumped 6 percent.

    Odds, ends

    • There were 25 selling days last month compared with 24 in April 2018.
    • ALG estimates the average transaction price for a new light-vehicle was $34,319 in April, up 2.9 percent from a year ago, while incentives as a percentage of ATP stood at 10.2 percent last month.
    • The average number of days a new vehicle sat on a dealer lot before being sold to a retail customer was 72 days through April 21, up 5 days from April 2018, J.D. Power said.
    • Fleet sales are expected to total 325,000 units in April, up 2.6 percent from April 2018, J.D. Power said. Fleet volume is expected to account for 24 percent of total light-vehicle sales, up from 22 percent last year.
    • April marked the fourth straight month that interest rates hovered above 6% — according to Edmunds. The annual percentage rate on new financed cars and light trucks is expected to average 6.28% in April compared to 5.58% last year and 4.40% five years ago.

    Quotable

    “From an overall volume perspective, the industry continues to show signs of softness with April representing the 10th straight month of year-over-year retail sales declines. Yet, we continue to see strength in other key industry health metrics, with a large increase in average transaction prices and lower manufacturer incentives.”

    -- Thomas King, senior vice president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power

    “April sales were a bit dampened by the harsh financing conditions we’ve been seeing in the new car market. Shoppers are really starting to feel the pinch as prices continue to creep up and interest rates loom at post-recession highs.”

    -- Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of industry analysis.

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