There is hardly any doubt that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is once again dominating the election scenario going by the response in the first four of the seven phases of voting concluding on May 19. Counting will be held four days later on May 23. He believes the opposition is in panic how to stop this one man jaggernaut thereby compounding matters for itself.
The Head of Government has taken upon himself the onerous task of being the “chowkidar” in a bid to protect and take this country forward. This is viewed as a clever strategy for garnering votes which assumes significance as about 8.4 crore first time voters can make all the difference in winning and losing.
Modi is leaving no stone unturned in his determined bid for a second consecutive five-year term as the Prime Minister enconsed in the majestic South Block on the Raisina Hill in the national capital. However, in 2004, the “shining India” campaign by the saffron brigade had sent the popular Atal Behari Vajpayee government packing.
It is becoming apparent that the BJP has an advantage when it comes to the first time voter compared to the Congress or other opposition parties. The role of the first time voter cannot be undermined or dismissed out of hand despite the inherent limitations as they are aware of the incumbent.
At the same time they are better educated and tech-savvy than others in their family. Even though the first time voter might be accustomed to the social media, there is a high element of unpredictability. As they hail from varied socio economic milieu, the first time voter is considered highly unpredictable.
The BJP enjoyed a significant advantage of 42 per cent of the votes from first time voters compared to other political parties. The AAP, SP and BSP also attracted the young voters. It has been argued that in the last five years under Modi’s stewardship of the country, the world’s largest democracy has suffered a severe setback.
Many stalwarts insist that democracy has kept this country united whereas in neighbouring Pakistan the powerful military establishment has destroyed that country. A fresh controversy has erupted with the BJP brass giving Sadhvi Pragya Thakur a ticket to contest the Bhopal Lok Sabha seat against senior Congressman and former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijay Singh.
The National Investigating Agency has been accused of manipulating the case against the Malegaon blast accused. NIA’s prosecutor said there is no relation between Sadhvi Praghya Thakur and the terror funding case. She is a key accused in the 2008 Malegaon blast case. She is currently facing trial under sections of the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) in a Mumbai court and is out on bail.
Amid all this there is a disturbing trend of the divisive effects of fear spread by the leaders. In some instances Modi is reportedly spreading fear over hope. Impartial observers emphasise focus on fear constantly reminds the people of the dangers.
At the same time fear has subtle, subconscious efforts on the attitudes and behaviour of the people towards one another. It is baffling that Modi waited till the 17th Lok Sabha elections got under way to dwelve on the critical issue of National Security drawing pointed attention to the air strikes in Balakot as a strategic raid on a terrorist training camps across the Line of Control.
Does it amount to Modi putting himself in the spotlight to bring home the point that if this Prime Minister is not around, security might well become a casualty. All this apparently forms part of a strategy to distract the peoples’ attention from the burning issue of national security and jobs.
Security experts and others insist it is time for the Centre to evolve a doctrine on national security. In this context attention is repeatedly drawn to the nuclear doctrine. Modi has warned Pakistan of any misadventure against India as New Delhi’s nuclear arsenal is not meant for being displayed on Diwali.
There is no doubt Modi has remained the most popular leader in the country over the last five years compared to all the others. What stands out starkly is the multitude of pledges made by him in the run up to the 2014 general elections a large of which have remained unfulfilled. The much touted song “acche din aane wale hain” having failed to materialise has been faded out.
Once again Uttar Pradesh which has the maximum number of 80 seats in the Lok Sabha remains crucial to the BJP as it won 71 seats in the last general elections and enjoyed a tally of 73 along with its allies. This mind boggling figure propelled the Lotus party to power at the Centre. Importantly, the party secured a majority in the Lok Sabha for the first time. The BJP brass has now fixed a target of 74, one seat more than what they had secured five years.
Simultaneously, deep down it realises it can suffer losses in crucial UP compared to 2014. Consequently, it is hoping to offset the shortfall in the Hindi belt from the South including Tamil Nadu where the BJP is partnering the AIADMK coupled with West Bengal and Odisha in the East as well as the Northeast.
Compounding matters is the policy crises adversely affecting employment generation coupled with farmers distress. Taking recourse to populist measures in the prevailing scenario can pose a major challenge in facing the multi-faceted challenges looming ahead.
The writer is a senior journalist and commentator.