It was five years ago that I was in Varanasi for Narendra Modi’s road show before he filed his nomination for his first Lok Sabha election. It was a spectacular show that very hot April morning, perhaps as exhilarating as the grand assertion of popularity last Thursday afternoon. The pedants can undertake the usual number crunching exercises over which road show attracted greater numbers, but that is academic. The point remains that on both occasions Modi demonstrated his connect with the citizens of Varanasi and eastern Uttar Pradesh.
However there was a crucial difference between the flag waving and slogan shouting of April 2014 and the one that was so generously covered by TV last week. In 2014, the commentariat was still sceptical over Modi’s debut in Uttar Pradesh. Yes, they conceded, he was popular as a Hindu icon in this most Hindu centre of India, but would he be able to overcome the challenges of caste?
More significant, there was the looming presence of the Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal, the hero of the secular brigade and the NGOs. How would the Modi machine fare against the raw and passionate dedication of AAP’s earnest and dedicated volunteer army that was so visible in every street corner of Varanasi? In 2014, the Modi magic was still under exacting scrutiny.
The mood was very different last week. The presence of a Prime Minister invariably adds an extra zing to the proceedings, as does the elaborate security bandobast. Moreover, the huge popularity of the candidate, including his ability to swing elections—as he did in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly poll of 2017–was no longer in doubt. In 2014, there were still those who imagined that the surging crowds in Varanasi had been bussed in from neighbouring areas. Five years later, the reality of Modi’s popularity was not contested.
Yet, in political terms, the Varanasi show of 2019 may be more significant in the context of the 2019 general election. Modi’s roadshow last Thursday coincided with the Congress announcement of its candidate to take on Modi. And it wasn’t the party General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
There are many many good and sensible reasons why the Congress President decided against fielding his sister against the Prime Minister in a symbolic contest. We need not go over them to decide which consideration finally swung the decision. It is the impact of the Congress decision that is far more significant.
More than proclaiming that it wasn’t worth fighting Modi in Varanasi, the Congress decision was interpreted by its supporters and backers as a formal admission that the the 2019 general election was as good as lost. For the past fortnight, reports had been pouring in from all over India—and not least eastern India—that crowds in Modi’s meetings continued to be stupendous and full of energy.
In a made-in-media age when public meetings all over the country are shown live, there is a natural tendency for attendance in the actual venue to diminish—not least because of the hot weather. In the case of Modi’s meetings, however, the attendance never looked like falling.
For very long, a section of the commentariat—firmly attached to the Modi Hattao project—had lived in denial over the Prime Minister’s continuing status as a super hero. There were unending observations of 2019 being a ‘waveless’ election where the dynamics of local politics could end up queering the pitch for the BJP.
It was said that that at the end of the day, caste solidarity would prevail and make life impossible for the BJP. It was also said that the voters were looking for the smallest of opportunities to punish Modi for demonetisation and the apparent failure to put Rs 15 lakhs into their bank accounts.
Last Thursday’s announcement by the Congress was as good an admission that the 2019 election belonged to Modi. Yes, there was carping comparisons made by Yashwant Sinha that the adulatory crowds were reminiscent of Hitler’s rallies and there were angry outbursts directed at Rahul Gandhi for having lost the plot. In the end, they amounted to the same expression of disgust at the leading opposition party having conceded defeat.
This is not to say that the 2019 vote war is a good as over. The Congress may have been exposed for lacking the will to fight but the regional opponents of the BJP have not surrendered. Both the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha and the Trinamool in West Bengal have been exposed to a sustained BJP offensive, and they are fighting to preserve every inch of their turf.
They have ensured that in the event the NDA and Modi retain power on May 23, they will constitute the real opposition. In other words, the very nature of ‘national’ politics will change unrecognisably.
True, as of now, there are many more rounds of voting left and no one should take the electorate for granted. If there is genuine anti-Modi sentiment, that will be expressed in the vote, regardless of whether or not there is any party to provide leadership. All that can be said after three rounds of voting is that the Congress has given up the battle. Now it is Modi versus the regional parties.
Swapan Dasgupta is a senior journalist and Member of Parliament, being a presidential nominee to the Rajya Sabha.