As polling enters the final phase in the State on April 29, the Mumbai South constituency will see an intense battle between Shiv Sena’s sitting MP Arvind Sawant and Congress’s newly appointed Mumbai chief Milind Deora. Amid social media campaigns and public meetings, Mr. Deora managed to pull a coup by getting business magnate Mukesh Ambani to endorse him. But will that translate into real votes for Mr. Deora remains a question.
With nearly 15.5 lakh voters, the Mumbai South constituency covers a varied population: the elite from south Mumbai, the middle class from some of the Marathi heartlands, a strong trader community of Jains and Marwaris and a considerable number of Muslims from Byculla and nearby areas. Besides Mr. Sawant and Mr. Deora, 11 other candidates are in the fray for the seat, including Dr. Anil Kumar who has been fielded by the Vanchit Bahujan Agadhi.
“With Mukesh Ambani’s endorsement, the Jain and Marwari community may show their support to Mr. Deora, but when it comes to voting, they may side with the BJP. The problem is that between the Shiv Sena and Mr. Deora, the latter has more weight. However, when it comes to choosing between Mr. Deora and PM Narendra Modi, the shift is towards Mr. Modi. This is where the Shiv Sena gets the benefit,” said political analyst Abhay Deshpande, who feels that it will be a tough fight for the Congress as well as the Shiv Sena. He said that the Shiv Sena still enjoyed a slight edge because of the Modi factor in play.
BJP leader Nitin Gadkari with Shiv Sena candidate from Mumbai South Arvind Sawant on Saturday. Vivek Bendre
Meanwhile, Mr. Deora is positive that the people will vote for the Congress because they have finally realised that voting for the Shiv Sena in a prestigious constituency like Mumbai South was a big mistake last time as they have failed at every level of governance. “First and foremost, people need a voice in Delhi. Someone who can make his voice heard and make a difference, not just speak in Parliament. Today, people’s aspirations have changed and they want clean candidates with no criminal charges against them. Mumbai needs a massive urban infrastructure overhaul and the current dispensation has failed miserably in making Mumbai a modern, 21st-century city,” said Mr. Deora. In an online video, Mr. Sawant, however, asserted that his voice has always resonated with the needs of the poor, mill workers, businessmen, traders and industrialists.
The key issues
The constituency has been a hotbed of major public protests against the coastal road project, Metro tunnels passing under two Parsi fire temples, and eviction of Mumbai Port Trust residents. Political analysts say that these issues will linger in the minds of people before casting their votes. “I was evicted from my premises on Mumbai Port Trust land in 2015. I lost my livelihood at that moment. On what grounds should I vote for the current government?” asked Parvez Cooper, who ran a warehousing business. He said that businessmen like him also suffered tremendously because of demonetisation and GST. “Playing politics with people’s livelihood and shelter has to come to a halt.”
Constituency name: Mumbai South
Number of voters: 15,31,446
Male: 8,42,881
Female: 6,88,537
Others: 20
Assembly segments: Worli, Sewri, Byculla, Malabar Hill, Mumbadevi, Colaba
Main contestants: Milind Deora (Congress) vs Arvind Sawant (Shiv Sena)
Sitting MP: Arvind Sawant (secured 3,74,609 votes in 2014)
Victory margin: 1,28,564
2014 Polling percentage: 52.49%
Past winners
2009: Milind Deora (Congress)
2004: Milind Deora (Congress)