Jharkhand, a State that has largely remained a bastion of the Bharatiya Janata Party since the party’s emergence in national politics in the early 1990s, is poised for an interesting battle in the general election that could well present a template for Opposition unity to halt the saffron bandwagon in the country.
Fifteen years after Opposition parties stitched together an alliance and swept the small State, leaving the BJP with but one seat of the 14, a four-party, Congress-led coalition has shaped up that is targeting a reprise of 2004.
The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Jharkhand Vikash Morcha (Prajatantrik) and the Rastriya Janata Dal (RJD) have hammered out a seat-sharing agreement with the Congress in Jharkhand, which will vote on April 29 and May 6, 12 and 19. While the Congress got the lion’s share of seven seats, the JMM is contesting four seats and the JVM (P) and the RJD have been allotted two and one respectively. Ranged against this Opposition alliance is the combine of the State’s ruling BJP and the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) in a 13-1 seat-sharing formula.
Prior to becoming the 28th State on November 15, 2000, Jharkhand as a region in undivided Bihar had been voting for the BJP. Even though the Janata Dal and the JMM had a pact in the 1991 general election, the BJP won five seats in the region. At that time, the Congress had fought separately.
In the next three Lok Sabha elections — 1996, 1998 and 1999 — the BJP routed the Congress and the JMM winning 12, 13 and 12 seats respectively. In 1998, although there was an Opposition alliance in place it was overwhelmed by a groundswell of support in favour of the Atal Behari Vajpayee-led BJP. In 2009, despite the Congress returning to power at the Centre, the BJP retained its control over Jharkhand, cornering eight out of the 14 seats.
In the last election (2014), the BJP polled 52,07,439 out of the 1,27,92,013 valid votes, constituting 40.7%, whereas all the four Opposition parties, which fielded candidates independently, had a combined vote share of 36.8%. That led the BJP to win 12 seats, while the JMM retained two seats.
Tight margins
The BJP, however, faced a far closer fight in several seats that could have gone against it had the four current allies fought together in 2014.
In spite of a wave of support for its prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi in that election, in Godda, where the BJP defeated the Congress by 60,682 votes, the JVM (P) had polled 1,93,506.
Similarly, in Giridih, where the BJP’s victory margin over the JMM was 40,313, the JVM (P) tallied up 57,380 votes. And in Jamshedpur, it was the JMM’s turn to play spoiler as it cornered 1,38,109 votes, in a constituency where the JVM (P) lost out to the BJP by less than 1 lakh votes. There was a close fight in Lohardaga as well, where the BJP’s margin of victory over the Congress was only a little over 6,000 votes.
According to political observers, the grand alliance is set to pose a big challenge to the BJP as Mr. Modi’s popular appeal has lost its sheen this time round. The RJD, which could not be convinced to be satisfied with one seat, has fielded a candidate in Chatra, resulting in a ‘friendly fight’ with the Congress nominee there.
Mindful of not repeating its past mistakes, the Congress has nominated Geeta Koda, wife of former Jharkhand Chief Minister Madhu Koda, for the Singhbhum constituency, where she enjoys a good support base. In 2014, she ended up second, pushing the Congress candidate to the third position.
As far as issues are concerned, the Opposition alliance is convinced that the State government’s attempt to tweak Section 21 of the Chotanagpur Tenancy (CNT) Act and Section 13 of the Santhal Pargana Tenancy (SPT) Act, enabling use of agricultural land for non-agricultural purposes, would electorally backfire on the BJP.
Although the government, headed by Chief Minister Raghubar Das, decided not to press ahead with the amendments in the face of simmering resentment in the tribal heartland, the opposition parties succeeded in spotlighting the issue as an attempt to grab tribal land and hand it over to coal mining interests and industrialists. Growing unemployment, poverty and malnutrition in rural pockets, attacks on religious minorities and a lack of value addition to minerals mined in Jharkhand are some of the major issues that the Opposition has been using against the government.
To counter emotive issues like amendments to the CNT and SPT Acts, the BJP government has pushed for the Sarna religious code, which seeks a separate religious identity for tribals, who worship nature.
The BJP is largely banking on the charisma of Prime Minister Modi and the “strong steps” taken on national security. When Mr. Modi held a road show in Ranchi on April 23, the Jharkhand BJP appealed for votes for the PM, while there was hardly any mention of the party’s local candidate Sanjay Seth.
Local BJP leaders expressed confidence that the Modi factor would ultimately help eclipse all other issues being highlighted by the Opposition.
The Congress’s ‘wrong selection’ of candidates in some seats such as Dhanbad and Hazaribagh could also hurt the grand alliance, asserted the BJP leaders, who spoke on condition of anonymity.