Congress flummoxed everyone on Thursday by not declaring Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as its candidate against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Varanasi and nominating Ajay Rai, a distant third ranker in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, instead.
The stage seems to be set for PM Modi to romp home with an even bigger margin than the one in 2014 with the Grand Alliance fielding Shalini Yadav, who lost the mayoral elections in 2017 against the BJP candidate.
In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had defeated Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal by over 3.8 lakh votes and pushed local boy Ajay Rai (now the Congress candidate) to a distant third, with less than 70,000 votes.
While the move has come as a demoraliser for the Congress cadre in Uttar Pradesh, which was buoyed by the thought of Priyanka challenging PM Modi, party sources say the decision was taken after analysing the internal survey, which found that the cons weighed heavier than the pros.
Though UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi was not in favour of fielding Priyanka from the very beginning for several reasons, Congress leadership still toyed with the idea in the hope that the move would help revive the party in Uttar Pradesh and galvanise its cadre.
But the risk was too great. In case Priyanka lost badly, it would be a big loss of face and morale would be beaten irrevocably. Thus the party first chose to send a small team to assess the prospects in the constituency. In the meantime, the party leadership allowed rumours of the Nehru-Gandhi scion's candidature circulate and gain traction. Sources say the party drew the curtains on the matter when the survey team gave a frank assessment of a straight loss.
To recover, the team pitched Priyanka's presence 24x7 in Varanasi until polling day on May 19.
This is because Banaras-wallahs do not allow anyone to take their votes for granted. The Prime Minister himself has visited Varanasi several times in the past five years and kept aside two days exclusively for the holy city for the filing of his nomination.
This was a tall order for the party as Priyanka has an added responsibility of canvassing in the high stake seats of Amethi and Raebareli. The challenge is quite tough in Amethi too, where Rahul is pitted against BJP's Smriti Irani, who lost by a mere one lakh votes or so in 2014. This decision also leaves Priyanka little time to canvass for several crucial seats in eastern UP. The Congress also weighed how Priyanka's candidature, third in line after Rahul and Sonia, would hand the BJP ammunition to attack on the lines of dynastic politics.
Congress insiders, however, concede that the party should have been more circumspect and decisive as the delayed decision after raising hopes may not augur well for it. BJP has already upped the ante and attacked Congress for chickening out from contesting against Modi. The situation has also forced the Mahagathbandhan to rethink its candidate, to put up at least a respectable fight against PM Modi.
What the candidate switch means for
BJP
Congress
Mahagathbandhan
The five-time MLA from Uttar Pradesh began his political career as a member of BJP’s student wing. A member of the Bhumihar community, he has a considerable following among Brahmins and Bhumihars. He won Assembly elections from Kolasala constituency three times in a row on a BJP ticket between 1996 and 2007. In 2009, he joined the Samajwadi party after BJP denied him a Lok Sabha ticket and lost against Murli Manohar Joshi. He contested the bypolls from Kolasla constituency as an Independent the same year, and was nominated to the state Assembly again. In 2012, he won Assembly elections from Pindra constituency in Varanasi district on a Congress ticket. He was fielded by the party in 2014 as well, but managed to poll only 75,000 votes.