Caste equations, the agrarian crisis and water scarcity will dictate poll results in the Dindori constituency of Nashik district in North Maharashtra, according to experts. The tribal-dominated Dindori constituency will go to polls on April 29.

This constituency is demographically divided mainly into three parts — areas dominated by tribals, Marathas and OBCs. communities. It is estimated that tribals and farmers together constitute over 60% of this constituency.

Troubled by perennial drought, extreme poverty and uncertainty among farmers, the Dindori area has been in the news for the past two years, as a large number of farmers took to two impactful marches and a strike. One of these marches turned heads in urban Maharashtra as it reached Azad Maidan in March 2018, with demands to solve the water crisis, waive off farm loans, and transfer ownership of forest land to tribals cultivating it for generations.

With this backdrop, the Dindori constituency is set to see a four-squared fight, one where CPI(M) leader JP Gavit, who is a seven-time and present MLA from the region and is largely popular among farmers and tribals alike, is pitted against candidates from BJP-Shiv Sena and NCP-Congress.

Both these alliances are also challenged by the fourth factor — VBA candidate Bapu Kelu Varde— who is likely to bag votes from the OBC community, who have traditionally voted for the NCP. However, this does not imply that NCP has lost its relevance in the region. Of the six Assembly constituencies of Dindori — namely Nandgaon, Kalvan (an ST constituency), Chandwad, Yeola, Niphad, and Dindori (another ST constituency), senior NCP leader and former deputy chief minister of Maharashtra, Chhagan Bhujbal, is the sitting MLA from Yeola and his son Pankaj Bhujbal is the sitting MLA from Nandgaon.

Two general elections have taken place in Dindori so far — in 2009 and 2014 — as the Lok Sabha constituency was formed after delimitation in 2008. On both occasions, the seat was bagged by BJP’s Harishchandra Chavan. However, BJP did not offer Chavan a ticket this time, and instead fielded NCP turncoat Dr Bharati Pawar.

Incidentally, in 2014, Pawar who was contesting on an NCP ticket, was the runner-up.

At the time of fielding candidates this time, Gavit had approached NCP, requesting the Bhujbals not to field a candidate from Dindori and to leave the seat to CPI(M). Gavit believed his party had an advantage due to the strong support it garners from tribals and farmers. Without NCP competing for these votes, Gavit believed he would be able to put up a fair fight against BJP, which has won the seat both the times.

Gavit said, “I tried to reason with NCP to leave this seat for me. This would have worked to their advantage and ours. Right now, with an NCP candidate contesting the elections, we face the threat of splitting votes. This is in-turn going to benefit the BJP by giving them an upper hand.”

However, NCP went ahead and fielded Sena turncoat Dhanraj Mahale, who is confident of defeating BJP and CPI(M) in the upcoming elections.

The BJP, on the other hand, is banking on Gavit (CPI-M) and Varde (VBA) taking away a chunk of NCP votes. Tushar Waghmare, BJP general secretary of Dindori tehsil, said, “ With Gavit himself contesting, it is likely he will get more votes than the CPI(M) candidate did in 2014. But NCP and CPI(M) are going to take away a large portion of each other’s vote share.”

The CPI(M) is confident it is fighting elections on an agenda that guarantees them people’s support. Gavit said, “Understanding this constituency thoroughly is the key to winning it. There is no uniformity in geography and climate here. The west part of my constituency is forest land, where there is rainfall. The problem in this area is that farmers who cultivate this land do not own it. The east part is facing severe drought.”

First Published: Apr 26, 2019 02:03 IST