If Morrison wants to stay PM\, he has to do much better in Victoria

Advertisement

If Morrison wants to stay PM, he has to do much better in Victoria

Scott Morrison has found his inner Tony Abbott.

The current Prime Minister had a lot of success in the first week of the election campaign laying into Labor the way Abbott, the university boxer with the “whirling dervish” fighting style, used to do when he was Leader of the Opposition.

Bill Shorten was left looking a bit ragged after a few days of so many attacks by Morrison, ably backed by the News Corp press, so that the Labor leader didn’t seem to know where the next haymaker was coming from.

It was a remarkable performance from the Prime Minister, raising hopes among Liberals and Nationals that they might just stand a chance of holding onto government when the nation votes on May 18.

Advertisement

Abbott’s university boxing bouts were all over pretty quickly, but Morrison has to go a few rounds yet with Shorten, a man who learns very quickly on his feet.

And while the Prime Minister’s first-round heroics briefly banished thoughts of the long-term problems faced by his party and its Nationals allies, within a few days some of the old dramas came crowding back in.

One of them is Barnaby Joyce, caught up in the furore over an $80 million spend of taxpayer funds on what looks to be a very questionable buyback of Murray-Darling water rights from a company based in the Cayman islands.

Joyce’s defence (don’t ask me, I was just the minister) and that ABC radio interview, almost cruelly highlighted the decline of this politician, such an asset during Abbott’s day, now a terrible liability to Morrison.

Loading

Malcolm Turnbull, too, is a problem for Morrison that, like Joyce, just isn’t going away.

The other former Prime Minister popped up on Good Friday to get stuck in the Liberals’ “right wing minority” while highlighting the party’s struggles to come up with lasting policy on energy and climate, another lingering headache for the current Prime Minister.

But it is the state of Victoria that is still probably the biggest block in Morrison’s road back to the lodge; the Liberals must exceed expectations here if they are to have a chance.

It’s true that Labor types are dreaming if they think their party’s landslide state election win in November will automatically be replicated in May.

But one of the factors in November’s slaughter was the poor performance of the Liberal machine in Victoria.

Urgent repairs are underway, but it’s still a work in progress and local Liberals concede that this poll, with Victoria as a key battleground state, comes at a bad time for them.

Four Victorian Liberal candidates contesting non-winnable seats have already been pitched overboard.

More serious is the damaging publicity to the candidates for Macnamara, a key target seat, and Chisholm, which should on paper at least be a holdable marginal. And there are grumbles of poor co-ordination between state Liberal HQ in Melbourne and the party’s national campaign high command in Brisbane.

All this on top of the structural disadvantage that confronts the Coalition in this state at every election: the union movement and its Victorian umbrella group Trades Hall that is campaigning to make life difficult for sitting Liberal members in even the safest seats.

It’s a tough proposition all in all, but Morrison is up for the fight, spending several days campaigning in Victorian marginals and splashing infrastructure money to sandbag some of the diciest Liberal electorates.

Loading

The party has been briefing that the Prime Minister’s “personal brand” is going across better in the state than many had expected, but if Morrison is to save the Victorian Liberal furniture, he is going to have to it pretty much single-handed.

Josh Frydenberg is a handy player to have on the team bus, but with the Greens and a credible independent both on the attack in the Treasurer’s seat of Kooyong, Josh is going to have to play a lot of home fixtures this season.

Of Morrison’s other strong performers, Employment Minister Kelly O’Dwyer and Defence Minister Christopher Pyne are both walking away from politics in what should be the prime of their careers, never a good look.

If Morrison is to save the Victorian Liberal furniture, he is going to have to it pretty much single-handed.

Peter Dutton, the government’s go-to tough guy on immigration, has a lot on his plate defending his marginal Queensland seat from a determined Labor challenge but that didn’t stop him making national headlines by targeting his opponent’s disability early in the campaign.

Even if Dutton was available to be deployed around the nation in the countdown to May 18, you’d probably keep him away from Victoria after the whole gangs and restaurants thing last year.

Besides, the public reaction to the Christchurch massacre means boats and borders is not the uncomplicated vote-winner it once was for the Coalition and must be approached with serious caution.

On the upside, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann is his usual reliable self and Simon Birmingham is cool and competent fronting the national campaign, but it’s hardly a cast of thousands standing behind Morrison.

Like his predecessor Abbott, Morrison is a scrapper with plenty of juice in the tank and if he can keep performing like he did in this campaign’s early exchanges, you wouldn’t bet against him.

But it’s going to take an effort for the ages.

Noel Towell is state political editor.

Most Viewed in Politics

Loading
Advertisement