Electioneering for the April 23 general election for the 20 Lok Sabha seats from Kerala has been one of the bitterest in recent times as the stakes are very high for all the three major fronts — the Left Democratic Front (LDF), United Democratic Front (UDF), and National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The Lok Sabha election in Kerala has also attracted national attention since AICC president Rahul Gandhi is in the fray from Wayanad and because the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is making a rather aggressive bid to crack the State’s bipolar coalition polity. Mr. Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have been in the State several times for the campaign.
CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury and CPI general secretary Sudhakar Reddy too arrived in the State to campaign for the LDF candidates, but Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was the pivot man throughout.
The election campaign started as usual with focus on development, but moved on to other issues related to post-flood management, allegations of irregularities in financial management, and the failures and success stories of the Modi and LDF governments. Initially, there appeared to be some restraint among political parties in highlighting the Sabarimala issue, but it cropped up when campaigning entered the final phase.
National issues
There are several undercurrents worth taking note. The UDF has a national leader contesting in the State, making national issues his focal point. Mr. Gandhi’s election rallies were impressive and his speeches had more clarity, in his singular attack on the Bharatiya Janata Party and Mr. Modi.
Congressmen feel that an assertive Rahul Gandhi will help the UDF woo many of the minority votes it had lost in the previous elections on ground of “poor leadership”.
On the other hand, the UDF leadership, with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the forefront, did make moves to prevent division of Muslim votes. Organisations such as the Welfare Party of India, Social Democratic Party of India, and Popular Front of India are not in the fray unlike last time.
Church’s role
A similar consolidation appears to have taken place in the case of the Catholic community, the pre-dominant denomination among the Christians. Except for Idukki, no two candidates belonging to the community are fighting each other. But it assumes significance because the attitude of the Catholic Church towards the Modi regime has been vastly different from its approach towards a “liberal” Vajpayee rule.
The LDF hopes to make big inroads into Central Travancore, the electoral base of the UDF, by appealing to smaller Christian denominations. The Left leadership hopes that its strident stand against the BJP-RSS combine during the Sabarimala agitation will strike a chord with minority communities because it established its credentials of taking on the Sangh Parivar.
‘Social reform’ card
It has fielded a Muslim candidate, A.M. Ariff, from the Alappuzha seat for the first time in what is viewed as a significant experiment. The LDF expects its “social reform” platform formulated in the aftermath of the Sabarimala agitation to retain its sway over backward classes and Dalits among the Hindus. It has also launched a campaign against the possibilities of transfer of votes and cross-voting in some constituencies between the Congress and the BJP. But political observers feel that the age-old agitation will not hold water this time and the CPI(M) would have to watch out for similar movements within its fold to prevent the BJP’s attempt to crack Kerala election.
The BJP is looking for the kind of majority community consolidation in its favour that would subsume caste propensities of voters and overcome the unquestionable sway that social organisations such as the Nair Service Society (NSS) have on electoral outcomes. Its star campaigner Mr. Modi preferred to use the Sabarimala issue and other local issues, breaking away from the national trend he had sought to set. The BJP’s electoral success depends on whether its Sabarimala agitations have been able to neutralise caste equations that make elections in south Kerala unique.
The NSS had stuck to its traditional policy of equi-distance and electoral outcomes in at least two constituencies, Pathanamthitta and Thiruvananthapuram, would depend on the mid-point that the organisation would arrive at in triangular contests there.
The SNDP has somewhat distanced itself from the BJP, even though the Bharatiya Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), its political outfit, is in alliance with the BJP and SNDP general secretary Vellappally Natesan’s son Thushar Vellappally is contesting in Wayanad on the BDJS ticket. The social organisation which represents the Ezhava community had thrown its weight behind the LDF government on the Sabarimala issue. Its grouse with the BJP is that its leadership did not provide it a level playing field.
Mr. Gandhi’s presence in Wayanad might give an upper hand to the UDF in a few constituencies in Malabar, but the area happens to be the CPI(M)’s bastion with deep roots which, it leaders assert, will enable it to cross finishing line in a straight political contest, in which the impact of Sabarimala or other caste factors will be feeble.