Lok Sabha elections 2019: Will citizenship bill row hurt the NDA in Northeast?

Six constituencies in the Northeast — five in Assam and one in Manipur — will vote on Thursday in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections. In Tripura East, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has deferred polling to the third phase on April 23, citing law and order issues.

As many as 50 candidates are in fray for five Lok Sabha seats — Mangaldoi, Nawgong, Autonomous District, Silchar and Karimganj — in Assam. Eleven are running for election from the Inner Manipur constituency.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won Mangaldoi and Nawgong in 2014, but both sitting MPs have been dropped from by the party. The Congress won Silchar and Autonomous District and Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) won Karimganj.

In Silchar, sitting MP and chief of All India Mahila Congress Sushmita Dev is locked in a tough fight with Rajdeep Roy, BJP candidate who is banking on the party’s push for the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill to get him votes in the Bengali-dominated Hindu majority constituency.

Elsewhere in Assam, the bill has triggered massive protests. The Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) would enable minorities from Muslim-majority Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan to get Indian citizenship, prompting concern among Assamese groups that it may open the floodgates for Hindus in Bangladesh to move to Assam, putting pressure on local resources and jobs.

The absence of an AIUDF candidate has made it a straight contest between Congress and BJP in the constituency, where Muslims account for more than 35% of the electorate, according to some estimates. The absence of an AIUDF candidate in Nawgong and Mangaldoi, too, could translate into trouble for BJP because the Muslim votes may go to the Congress in a straight contest .

In Inner Manipur, where violent protests broke out over the CAB in January, the BJP is hopeful of winning the seat riding on popularity of the 22 MLAs it has in the constituency which consists of 32 Assembly segments. In 2014, Congress won this seat. M Nara of the Communist Party of India (CPI), who finished runner-up to Congress’s Th Meinya in 2014, is again in the fray. BJP has fielded Dr RK Ranjan.

Sushanta Talukdar, a Guwahati-based political commentator said, “Stakes are high for both Congress and BJP. In seats like Nowgong, Mangaldoi, Congress seems to have an upper hand because of the AIUDF not contesting. In Barak Valley, BJP’s promise of bringing CAB will be tested if it’s enough to get votes.”

First Published: Apr 18, 2019 05:39 IST