The intense tri-cornered contests in three out of five Lok Sabha segments, Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal and Pathanamthitta, in the southern region of the State, where caste and community equations hold the key in tilting the scale, are heading for a photo finish.
Incumbent and United Democratic Front candidate Shashi Tharoor, Left Democratic Front’s C. Divakaran and National Democratic Alliance’s Kummanam Rajasekharan are locked in a major political fight in Thiruvananthapuram.
Equally curious would be the outcome of the contest of A. Sampath (LDF), Adoor Prakash (UDF) and Sobha Surendran (NDA) in Attingal and Veena George (LDF), Anto Antony (UDF) and K. Surendran (NDA) in Pathanamthitta.
It is more or less a straight fight between N.K. Premachandran (UDF) and K. N.Balagopal (LDF) in Kollam, and Chittayam Gopakumar (LDF) and Kodikunnil Suresh (UDF) in Mavelikara. Christian votes have a decisive say in the segment. The ravages wreaked by last year’s devastating flood, rebuilding initiatives of the government and their shortcomings would all influence the outcome in Pathanamthitta and Mavelikara.
Early bird advantage
The LDF seems to sustain the early-bird advantage it gained in all the five segments till the final lap of the campaign, with the front partners working in cohesively without any room for complaints.
The angst expressed by Mr. Tharoor about the lack of coordination, and the slackness in the campaign and the Congress high command’s decision to appoint an observer to oversee electioneering have exposed the chinks in the UDF armour.
It also gave room for charges of a quid pro quo between the Congress and the BJP for cross-voting in certain segments where the latter has fielded lesser known leaders. The spat between Congress leaders over the efficacy of the campaign management came as a dampener to the UDF. Mr. Rajasekharan and Mr. Divakaran are more or less on a par in campaigning till date.
Belated entry does not seem to have impacted much on the campaigning of Mr. Prakash and Ms. Surendran in Attingal, where Mr. Sampath is comfortably couched on the huge margin he secured over his rivals in the previous election and also the consistent effort he had put in for nurturing the constituency during the past decade.
The NDA is facing the charge of fielding a relatively lesser known candidate, V.K. Sabu, to aid Mr. Premachandran in Kollam, which has been stoutly denied by the BJP and the UDF. The delayed entry of Mr. Sabu has virtually cast an impression of a direct contest between Mr. Balagopal and Mr. Premachandran.
Wresting the constituency, a predominantly LDF bastion, where the CPI and the CPI(M) wield considerable influence, is quite imperative for the front.
Sabarimala hotbed
The contest in Pathanamthitta, the hotbed of a series of agitations spearheaded by the Sangh Parivar on the Sabarimala issue, is very prestigious for the LDF and the NDA. Well before the UDF naming Mr. Antony as candidate, the District Congress Committee publicly registered its objection to the candidature, much to the chagrin of the UDF leadership.
The inordinate delay and uncertainty over candidate finalisation queered the pitch for Mr. Surendran.
Ms. George had made considerable headway completing two rounds when her two other contenders settled down to serious business in the constituency. Whether she would be able to gain the same edge in the final round is what remains to be seen in a constituency where the community equations are quite pertinent in determining the final outcome.
Straight fight
The LDF claims to be on a comfortable position in Mavelikara, where it is again resting its hopes on a no-hold-barred campaign and the anti-incumbency factor of Mr. Suresh, whose alleged absence in flood relief activities is being highlighted by the front to Mr. Gopakumar’s advantage.
Being a prestigious fight for both fronts and the BJP in at least the three prime segments in the region, even minor flaws in campaigning would have a crucial say in determining the outcome.