Fishers to seal the fate in BJP-Congress face-to-face duel

KANNIYAKUMARI: he coastal district of Kanniyakumari was long a Congress fortress, the party winning 13 times. However, the BJP has made inroads into the region over the last 30 years. Currently, the saffron party’s lone Lok Sabha MP from Tamil Nadu, Pon Radhakrishnan, represents this constituency. The 67-year-old lawyer is facing off with 69-year-old Congressman H Vasanthakumar, a prominent businessman, whom he defeated in 2014. Vasanthakumar is the sitting MLA from Nanguneri. Both candidates belong to the dominant Nadar community. 

The Kanniyakumari constituency, formed in 2008, is composed of Kanniyakumari, Colachel, Killiyoor, Nagercoil, Padmanabhapuram and Vilavancode Assembly segments. The region has an equal presence of Hindus and Christians, both from the Nadar community, with a large fisher community that will play a deciding role. 

Rise of BJP in Kumari

Communal tension in the region was originally seen between Christian Nadars and Fernandos (fishermen community). Over time, however, the clashes came to be between Hindu and Christian Nadars. Riots between the two groups in the 1980s led to the entry of Hindu outfits in the region. Their entry was soon followed by that of the BJP which started working in the region in the early 1990s. Radhakrishnan first contested from the erstwhile Nagercoil Lok Sabha constituency in 1991. He contested again in 1996 and 1998 before winning for the first time in 1999. Since 1996, he has managed to garner a minimum of 30 per cent of polled votes. The BJP has a strong base in the Nagercoil, Padmanabhapuram and Kanniyakumari Assembly segments and Radhakrishnan’s candidature is widely accepted among Vellalars & Nairs. 

Congress calculations

Vasanthakumar, a native of Agasteeswaram, has worked to consolidate votes of minorities, and fisherfolk, and is counting on the support of the Church as its directions have an influence on voters.
Given that there is discontent among Catholics, Protestants, Muslims and the fisher community against the BJP in the Centre, Vasanthakumar is hoping that he will be able to lure these voters to the Congress. Further, the Congress believes that the BJP’s turning down of a demand for separate religious status to the Ayyavazhi community would also favour the party. The Ayyavazhi  faction of Nadars had contributed to the success of the BJP in  the past. 

Who is the favourite?

If the vote share of 2014 isto hold good in 2019 as well then Radhakrishnan would have an edge over Vasanthakumar. In 2014, Vasanthakumar secured 2,44,244 votes with a vote share of 24.64 per cent while the DMK candidate F M Raajarathinum got 1,17,933 votes with a vote share of 11.90 per cent. CPM candidate A V Bellarmin got 35,284 votes with a vote share of 3.56 per cent. Given that the Congress, DMK and CPM are allies in 2019, and assuming the vote share remains the same and transfers to the candidate, the total vote share of the alliance would be 40.1 per cent. 

On the other hand, Radhakrishnan secured 3,72,906 votes with a vote share of 37.62 per cent while the D John Thankam of AIADMK, which went it alone, got 1,76,239 votes with a vote share of 17.78%. If these figures hold good now, the total vote share of the alliance will be 55.4 per cent. 
However, both AIADMK and BJP are vulnerable to anti-incumbency sentiments. Further, Congress and DMK each won three of the Assembly segments coming under the LS constituency in 2016. In this context AMMK TTV Dhinakaran’s allegation that the BJP asked him to field a weak candidate in the constituency to split minority votes gains significance.  

A region in crisis

The region has faced a tough few years. Fishing is a key economic activity here, but fishers were badly affected by the Cyclone Ockhi in 2017. The fishing community is also largely opposed to the proposed Enayam Container Transhipment Terminal. Although the BJP had promised to establish a commercial port near Colachel in the last election, the decision to set up a terminal at Enayam has angered the community which fears it will lose its livelihood. These fears have not been sufficiently addressed by the BJP and may affect the party’s performance in the polls.