Amid El Nino, IMD to release first monsoon forecast today
TNN | Apr 15, 2019, 05:31 IST
NEW DELHI: Amid existing El Nino phenomenon which invariably weakens summer monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will release its forecast on Monday for this year’s monsoon rainfall for the June-September period. The prediction assumes significance for agriculture in India where nearly half of the farming operation depends on seasonal rainfall.
This first stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) will be restricted to prediction of percentage of rainfall (of the Long Period Average) during the four-month season. The 50-year (1951-2000) long period average for the south-west monsoon is 89 cm of rainfall.
Prediction on region-wise and month-wise distribution of rainfall will be released in the IMD’s next forecast in the first week of June.
El Nino is a climate pattern where waters in the east and central Pacific Ocean warm beyond threshold levels, leading to changes in wind patterns that often weaken the Indian summer monsoon.
Based on presence of El Nino, private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather had on April 3 predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon for 2019. It pegged countrywide rainfall during the monsoon period (June-September) at 93% of the long period average.
The monsoon is considered ‘normal’ when the June-September period has rainfall in the range of 96-104% of the LPA. Rainfall in the range of 90-96% of the LPA is considered ‘below normal’.
Though the India Meteorological Department had predicted near normal rainfall (97% of the LPA with a model error of plus/minus 5%) for the 2018 summer monsoon, the rainfall actually turned out to be ‘below normal’ at nearly 91% of the long period average.
This first stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) will be restricted to prediction of percentage of rainfall (of the Long Period Average) during the four-month season. The 50-year (1951-2000) long period average for the south-west monsoon is 89 cm of rainfall.
Prediction on region-wise and month-wise distribution of rainfall will be released in the IMD’s next forecast in the first week of June.
El Nino is a climate pattern where waters in the east and central Pacific Ocean warm beyond threshold levels, leading to changes in wind patterns that often weaken the Indian summer monsoon.
Based on presence of El Nino, private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather had on April 3 predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon for 2019. It pegged countrywide rainfall during the monsoon period (June-September) at 93% of the long period average.
The monsoon is considered ‘normal’ when the June-September period has rainfall in the range of 96-104% of the LPA. Rainfall in the range of 90-96% of the LPA is considered ‘below normal’.
Though the India Meteorological Department had predicted near normal rainfall (97% of the LPA with a model error of plus/minus 5%) for the 2018 summer monsoon, the rainfall actually turned out to be ‘below normal’ at nearly 91% of the long period average.
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