Even though IMD is yet to mention the region-wise rainfall distribution for the season ahead, the rainfall distribution over the country as whole is expected to be fairly well distributed, benefiting the distressed farmer community the most. (AP/Representational)Despite fears of a subdued monsoon owing to a weak El Nino prevailing over the Pacific Ocean, India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that the rainfall over the country during the upcoming monsoon would be near-normal.
This was stated in the first Long Range Forecast (LRF) issued by IMD which also mentioned that the country as a whole is expected to receive 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) during June to September months, this year. The Long Period Average (LPA) of the monsoon season over the country is 89 cm, calculated for the period 1951-2000.
While there are multiple atmospheric factors that influence the Indian Southwest monsoon, the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) situation observed along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, off the western coast of South America, hold key. During years when a warmer than unusual Pacific Ocean conditions, known as EL Nino, or El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has prevailed, the rainfall over Indian subcontinent has remained subdued.
At present, conditions of a weak El Nino persists over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“However, weather models suggest that its magnitude is likely to decrease in the coming months. We are expecting this towards the end of July or by early August. But, we are continuously monitoring the El Nino behaviour,” M Rajeevan, secretary, Ministry of Earth Science (MoES), told The Indian Express.
The season’s first LRF has warned of a reduced rainfall activity during August and September months, similar to a situation realised last season. Besides, the forecast probability between a near-normal and a below normal draw is far too close, as IMD suggests a 39 per cent chance for a near normal situation while an equally closer 32 per cent probability of rainfall scenario that would be below normal.
Even though IMD is yet to mention the region-wise rainfall distribution for the season ahead, the rainfall distribution over the country as whole is expected to be fairly well distributed, benefiting the distressed farmer community the most.
