Two-way fight in Amravati & Buldhana, 3-way in Akola

Nagpur: After first phase, all eyes are now on the second phase of polls where three major constituencies of Vidarbha — Akola, Amravati and Buldhana — would go for the polls on April 18. Till last week, the campaigning hasn’t really picked up, as many of activists and top leaders from BJP, Congress and other parties were camping in Nagpur, and other constituencies of the region.
After the first phase was held on Thursday, the campaigning is expected to reach its peak before Tuesday’s 5pm deadline. At two of the three places, it’s a repeat of 2014 polls as same candidates are pitched against each other. Moreover, it’s a two-way fight at Amravati and Buldhana and three-way at Akola, where Prakash Ambedkar would be vying for the seat for ninth time.

At all the places, caste equations play a major role in the voting pattern with majority of voters still preferring contestant from their respective castes. During polls, there’s a massive division among the voters on the caste lines and in some cases even on religion, thus forcing the political parties to give tickets to candidates accordingly.

In Amravati, which was reserved for the SC category, the fight is between two-time Sena MP Anand Adsul and Navneet Rana of Yuva Swabhiman Party. She has the backing of NCP and Congress. Both also contested in 2014 where Adsul won by 1.37 lakh votes. Though Adsul is still tipped as favourite for the hat-trick, Rana could cause upset him in the absence of a clear Modi wave like in 2014 coupled with the anti-incumbency factor.

In Akola, BJP MP Sanjay Dhotre would be eyeing his fourth straight term, which would be a new record for the constituency. He would be pitted against Hidayat Patel and Ambedkar, who had formed Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) in association with All India Majl-is-e-Ittehad-UL-Muslimeen (AIMIM), founded by MP Asaduddin Owaisi.

Riding on the Modi wave in 2014, where the PM himself had addressed a speech in Akola, Dhotre had crushed the challenge of Patel and Ambedkar by winning by a margin of over two lakh votes. Before the polls, talks were underway between Ambedkar and Congress to fight unitedly against the BJP, but the former demanded 22 seats for his VBA in Maharashtra’s 48 seats, which scuttled their plans.

As a result, Congress nominated its city chief Patel at the last moment. Here, Dhotre is believed to be almost sure to register his name in the record books, as Dalit, Muslim and OBC votes are likely to be split between Patel and Ambedkar, with BSP getting a smaller share.

In Buldhana, it’s again a straight fight between two-time Sena MP Prataprao Jadhav and NCP’s Rajendra Shingane, who had clashed in 2009 as well, before the latter took a drop. That time, Jadhav had managed to win by a narrow margin of just 28,000 votes after a tough fight. In 2014, it was a cakewalk for Jadhav who defeated NCP’s Krishnarao Ingle by over 1.59 lakh votes. This time, analysts are again predicting a tough contest between Jadhav and Shingane who are both Marathas and wield considerable influence on the cooperative sector in the district.

The top brass and activists of major parties, including BJP, Congress, Sena and NCP, have already started their campaigning and planned to expand it to every nook and corners of all three districts. Many from other seven constituencies in Vidarbha are expected to join them. So far, only chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is the only notable name who has addressed a couple of rallies in the three constituencies.