Rural turnout much higher, driven by Jewar and Dadri

Noida: The 2.3 percentage-point increase in Gautam Budh Nagar’s voter turnout in the first phase of the general election was spurred by its rural areas, primarily Jewar and Dadri, where people came out to vote in much bigger numbers than those in the urban segment of Noida.
Jewar recorded a turnout of 68.4% (in 2014 it was 61.8%) and Dadri 64.6% (60.8% in 2014), significantly higher than Noida’s 53.6% (53.1% in 2014).

There are 19.86 lakh registered voters in the constituency, of whom 60% are from rural areas. Khurja and Sikandrabad witnessed a slight dip in turnout numbers compared with 2014.

The decrease in numbers at Khurja and Sikandrabad is being attributed to several factors, including absence of star campaigners in the region. Other than Union home minister Rajnath Singh, no major political leaders held rallies in the area which, political observers believe, resulted in a disconnect between candidates and voters.

Pawan Sharma, the Congress’s spokesperson in Noida, said the decrease in numbers in some areas was because of lack of awareness programmes. “The government has also not done any significant development work in Sikandrabad and Khurja. People are unhappy and so did not vote in large numbers,” he said.

On the other hand, increased voting percentage in Jewar — the site of the international airport project — and Dadri might not be good news for BJP MP Mahesh Sharma. Both places have predominantly farming communities who have been in acute income distress.

Raghvendra Dubey, Samajwadi Party’s spokesperson for the region, said, “The farmers in Jewar are unhappy because they did not get four-times the compensation. We feel they voted for the alliance candidate.”

In Ghaziabad, the overall voting percentage saw a dip of 1.1% compared to 2014 after the Election Commission released final figures on Friday morning. It was lower than the provisional figure (58.2%) given by local officials on Thursday evening while voting was drawing to a close. Three assembly segments — Sahibabad, Ghaziabad and Muradnagar — of five recorded marginally lower numbers compared to last time.

While Sahibabad saw a dip of 2.8%, Ghaziabad recorded a 0.7% dip. In Muradnagar, the voting percentage fell by 1.9%. In the remaining two assembly segments — Loni and Dhaulana — voting percentage increased by 1.6 and 0.1, respectively. In 2014, the voting percentage in Ghaziabad was 57. This time it is 55.8%.

“There is no thumb rule but it is a widely held view that anti-incumbency plays up when there is high voter turnout. But since the overall voting percentage has gone down by 1.14% in Ghaziabad, it is indicative of the fact that in urban pockets of Sahibabad, Ghaziabad and Muradnagar, that had no effect,” said Sanjay Mishra, associate professor, political science, at MMH College in Ghaziabad. “By the same logic, if voting has increased in rural pockets, which largely constitutes Loni and Dhaulana segments, it means that the anti-incumbency factor is working a little in the rural belt.”

“Sahibabad is one of the largest assembly constituencies in the country with 9.48 lakh voters. Of them, less than half, which is 4.69 lakh, voted this time. But to manage such a large constituency, which has largely urban or middle class voters who are known for not voting often, ... it should not surprise us,” said Mishra. “But there is a silver lining. This time, the voting percentage of women in Sahibabad (49.98) was higher than men (49.18).”