Bengaluru: When Janata Dal (Secular) entered a post alliance with Congress after Assembly elections in 2018 and went on to form a shaky government, CM HD Kumaraswamy had said nothing will happen to his ministry till the Lok Sabha polls. Now that the polls are round the corner in Karnataka, the alliance is showing signs of a break-up.
Two factors would contribute to this process – defeat of HDK’s son Nikhil in Mandya and, secondly, the sudden drop in numbers in the Assembly if the three sitting MLAs of the Congress manage to win the Lok Sabha elections.
But key to survival of the government will be the outcome in Mandya, a key seat in the sugarcane belt. Nikhil, like his role in his forthcoming film Abhimanyu, is fighting a losing battle to Sumalatha Ambareesh, the widow of actor-hero Ambareesh who lorded over the entire sugarcane belt. It is almost certain that Nikhil will lose. Sumalatha, an accomplished actor, has been gaining popularity and the backing of the numerous fans of Ambareesh, for whom he was a god figure.
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Nikhil’s defeat will rattle the JD(S)-Congress alliance. Kumaraswamy loves his son and will not take the defeat lightly. To make matters worse, if his brother HD Revanna’s son Prajwal manages to win from Hassan, Kumaraswamy will be a shattered man. Kumaraswamy propped up his son in a bitter family rivalry to inherit the JD(S) mantle for the next generation.
Nikhil’s defeat will thus change even family equations within the JD(S) parivar comprising grand old patriarch HD Deve Gowda, his sons HDK and Revana and, now, grandchildren Nikhil and Prajwal. If Nikhil is defeated, it will be not surprising if Kumaraswamy resigns, and throws the coalition into a disarray. That will lead to end of the coalition in Karnataka.
The second factor: Apart from the Nikhil factor, the coalition will be in deep trouble after the elections if three of the sitting MLAs of the Congress get elected. This will make Kumaraswamy government’s majority in the Assembly wafer-thin. If they win, Congress MLAs must give up their assembly seats which would reduce numbers of the coalition.
The Congress’ strength could diminish to 76 and reduce coalition numbers to 114 in the legislative assembly. Meanwhile, three Congress MLAs, besides Umesh Jadhav, who have resigned from the Congress, are facing disqualification proceedings. If the speaker rules against them, the number of Congress legislators could fall to 73.
That would put the coalition’s strength at 111 in a house of 216 members. This could lead to a Goa type of situation. BJP could once more launch Operation Lotus (poaching of MLAs). Past experience shows that getting three or four MLAs is not a huge task for the BJP.
BJP state president Yeddyurappa predicted this when he had said the JD(S)-Congress government will fall within 48 hours of announcement of LS poll results on May 23. In coming days, Congress has multiple fronts to fight. One is, of course, the Nikhil factor, the second is that the three MLAs facing disqualification could cross over to the BJP and the, third, defection.
Congress leadership in Bengaluru is a worried lot. Despite stern warnings, threats and pleadings, several Congress leaders openly refused to support Nikhil because, in the past, Kumaraswamy treated Congress shabbily in Mandya, a Vokkaliga belt – the community of the Gowdas.
In a way, Congress workers are taking revenge for past acts of Kumaraswamy and his father. Kumaraswamy tried to politically finish off Congress in Mandya using the Vokkaliga tag. Nikhil is now bearing the cross for his father’s past acts. Interesting days ahead in Karnataka.