The fate of two junior ministers in the Narendra Modi government will be decided Thursday as the twin NCR cities of Uttar Pradesh—Noida and Ghaziabad—go to polls.

The minister of state for external Affairs, General (retired) Vijay Kumar Singh, is contesting from the Ghaziabad seat while minister of state for culture, Dr Mahesh Sharma, is contesting from Gautam Budh Nagar seat, both facing a tough competition this time around. About 27 lakh voters in Ghaziabad and nearly 23 lakh voters in Gautam Budh Nagar parliamentary constituencies will get inked on Thursday to seal the fate of candidates.

Not just caste equation; the urban-rural divide between voters will also be instrumental in deciding the winners. Traditionally, while urban voters sway the votes in Ghaziabad, rural voters are the deciding factor in Gautam Budh Nagar constituency.

However, with several new housing societies being delivered over the past few years, there has been a large increase in urban voters in Noida and Greater Noida. The urban Noida seat forms the largest group of this constituency with 6,68,095 voters and may hold the key to victory.

For complete coverage of Lok Sabha Elections 2019, click here

In a first, 133 third gender voters will also exercise their franchise in Gautam Budh Nagar constituency. In the previous two general elections, the category was mentioned as others.

The battle seems to remain mainly between two contenders— Dr Mahesh Sharma of the BJP and Satveer Nagar of the BSP-SP alliance. The Congress candidate, Arvind Singh, seems to be struggling to gain support, even from within his party.

Dr Sharma is eyeing the support of over 8 lakh urban voters, while Nagar and Singh mainly campaigned in rural areas. As per estimates, there are 4.5 lakh Rajput voters and approximately 4 lakh each of Gujjars, Muslims and Brahmin voters.

In Ghaziabad, a triangular contest can be expected between BJP candidate VK Singh, SP candidate Suresh Bansal and Congress’ Dolly Sharma.

According to estimates, Ghaziabad constituency has an estimated 6 lakh Brahmins, 5 lakh Muslims, 3 lakh each of Vaish and Jatavs, nearly 2.5 lakh Rajputs, besides 2 lakh Jat voters, among others. The way Brahmins and Muslims vote will seal the fate of the candidates there. Also, more than half the electorate is urban voters in Ghaziabad.

The Gautam Budh Nagar constituency has traditionally voted in favour of BJP, BSP or SP in the past elections as well. During the 2014 election, Dr Sharma defeated SP’s Narendra Bhati by a margin of 2,58,871 votes. In 2009, BSP’s Surendra Nagar defeated Dr Sharma (BJP) by 15,904 votes. Prior to 2009, the constituency was known as Khurja parliamentary constituency.

Similarly in Ghaziabad, during the 2014 elections, VK Singh, 67, defeated Congress’ Raj Babbar by a record margin of 5,67,260 votes, the second highest margin in the country after PM Narendra Modi. The voter turnout in 2014 was 56.94%. In 2017, all five assembly seats in Ghaziabad, as well as the mayoral seat, went to BJP.

The constituency, unlike Gautam Budh Nagar, also seems to be important for national leaders as several major rallies were held there in the past two weeks. UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath, Uttarakhand chief minister Trivendra Singh Rawat, Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Congress leaders Ghulam Nabi Azad, Jyotiraditya Scindia, former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and MP Pramod Tiwari, and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav held rallies and roadshows supporting their candidates.

First Published: Apr 11, 2019 08:56 IST