China\, US could win big on no-deal Brexit: UN

China, US could win big on no-deal Brexit: UN

AFP  |  Geneva 

If Britain leaves the EU without a deal, the bloc and Britain's smaller trading partners stand to lose big, but and could reap huge benefits, the UN said Tuesday.

The report, titled "No-deal Brexit: the trade winners and losers", came out as British pleaded with EU leaders to provide an extension to the deadline for Brexit to avoid leaving with no deal on April 12.

The UNCTAD report warned that if Britain did exit the bloc without a proper divorce deal, it "would significantly alter market access conditions in the both for developing and developed countries."

The British market currently accounts for about 3.5 per cent of world trade, and last year the country imported goods worth almost USD 680 billion (604 billion euros) from the rest of the world, UNCTAD said.

More than half of that came from EU countries, who stand to lose out on nearly USD 35 billion in exports to Britain in the case of a no-deal Brexit, the report found.

But it stressed that Britain is also an important trading partner for many developing countries, whose exports until now have enjoyed very favourable market access conditions, largely thanks to preferential EU schemes.

If there is a proper exit deal with a lengthy transition period, trading partners would have time to negotiate new bilateral agreements to replace the EU deals that will no longer apply to trade with the UK, UNCTAD said.

But without such a deal, countries that currently benefit from favourable market access will feel the pain, while countries that until now have faced significant tariffs will benefit, it said.

"Brexit is not only a regional affair," and commodities said in a statement.

"Once the UK has left its 27 partners behind, it will alter the ability of non-EU countries to export to the UK market," she added.

In the case of a no-deal Brexit, would be the second-biggest loser after the EU, taking an estimated USD 2.4-billion hit to its exports to Britain, the report said. South Korea, Norway, Iceland, and also stand to lose big, it added.

At the same time, the report found that could gain an additional USD 10.2 billion in exports to Britain, while the could add USD 5.3 billion in exports to the country.

could also expect to see its exports to Britain swell by USD 4.9 billion, while Thailand, South Africa, India, Brazil, Russia, and would also rake in gains, it said.

According to rules, a country is not permitted to give preferential treatment to a trading partner, and must apply the same tariffs to all, unless there is an exception set out in a trade agreement.

If Britain leaves the EU with no such deals in place to protect its current preferential trading partners, it "would increase relative competitiveness of exporting countries, such as or the United States, thereby eroding market-share," Coke-Hamilton said.

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Wed, April 10 2019. 00:15 IST