How Congress helps the NDA in the Telugu states

United Andhra Pradesh catapulted the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to power, both in 2004 and 2009, by giving the grand old party more than 30 seats on each occasion. In fact, the South of the Vindhyas, especially Andhra Pradesh, always stood firmly loyal to the Congress even in its worst times. Indira Gandhi herself was elected from Medak (now in Telangana). At a time when the Congress was decimated in north India in 1977 owing to the fallout of the imposition of the Emergency, Andhra Pradesh sent 41 Congress Members of Parliament to Delhi. But today, after the bifurcation of the state, the two Telugu states seem to be turning into a nemesis for the party at a time when it is desperately trying to revive itself. And the party has only itself to blame for this. The self-centred manner in which it dealt with the question of the demand for the separate state of Telangana made the Congress hugely unpopular. This isn’t so just in the residuary Andhra Pradesh, which is aggrieved with what it believes to be an arbitrary bifurcation, but also in Telangana, where the party claims to have met the long standing aspiration of the people. This self-destructive political manoeuvring of the Congress will now play into the hands of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Desperate to compensate for the losses in north and west India, the saffron brigade hopes to capitalise on the political failure of the Congress in dealing with the people who stood behind it in its hour of crisis. The BJP on its own has little or no stake in both the Telugu states. One, the denial of special category status as promised during the bifurcation debate in Parliament made the BJP fall out of favour in Andhra Pradesh. Two, its failure to locate itself properly vis-a-vis the TRS made it largely irrelevant in Telangana.

Despite this, the Congress is not gaining much. The TRS and YSR Congress are expected to win a sizable number of seats, and the BJP is set to benefit from it. The two parties, which now claim to be non-BJP and non-Congress in the pre-poll setting, are more likely to join the NDA in the post-poll scenario. The TRS finds the Congress as its principal political rival in Telangana. Thus, it cannot prefer a party at the Centre that challenges it in the state. The YSR Congress chief, YS Jaganmohan Reddy, fell out with the Congress leadership and still has a bitter personal rivalry with Sonia Gandhi. Besides, now that his arch rival, N Chandrababu Naidu, has rallied other regional parties under the Congress leadership, YS Jagan is compelled to stay away from the grand old party. Thus, notwithstanding hostile rhetoric, both the TRS and the YSR Congress are prospective allies of the BJP.

In 2014, the BJP-led NDA won 73 of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, and 62 of 65 seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It also completely swept Gujarat and Delhi. Thus, 2019 can’t see the NDA do any better in these states. This is why the party is hoping to increase its tally in south and east India. But the backlash of the citizenship Amendment bill in the North-East temporarily dented the BJP’s hopes in the region. The North-East, which was once the stronghold of Congress, is seeing the BJP trying to repair its strategy and stitch up alliances. But, how far will this pacify the anger generated by the controversial bill is anybody’s guess. The formidable arithmetic due to Congress -Janata Dal(S) alliance in Karnataka hits the BJP hard. It had won 17 out of 28 seats in the state in 2014. The BJP is hoping for significant gains in Odisha and a foothold in Kerala owing to Sabarimala agitation.

But it remains clear that the BJP’s prospects in both the Telugu states are bleak. The estrangement with the TDP and the disenchantment over special status will decimate the party in Andhra Pradesh. And the failure to take a clear stand on TRS is costing it dearly in Telangana. However, it is the arrogance with which the Congress handled the Telugu people, which will prove to be a major advantage for the NDA in the form of allies in the TRS and YSR Congress.

K Nageshwar is author and professor, department of communication and journalism, Osmania University

The views expressed are personal

First Published: Apr 08, 2019 21:21 IST