With the country electing a new Lok Sabha, the assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim have eluded national attention. Not surprisingly, TRS supremo K Chandrashekar Rao had advanced the Telangana election to ensure that national issues wouldn’t get conflated with local ones and influence the popular mandate. But unlike KCR whose confidence was high, anti-incumbency troubles are dogging these four governments and have paved the way for spirited contests.
In Andhra Pradesh, N Chandrababu Naidu faces a two-pronged challenge from Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP and superstar Pawan Kalyan’s JanaSena Party. In 2014, Kalyan had signalled his political ambitions but took sides with Naidu helping TDP romp home. But the signs are ominous for Naidu five years later with a reinvented Jagan undertaking a 3,600 km padayatra to tap rural discontent and Kalyan assiduously courting Kapu and Dalit voters. Naidu would recall his failure in 2009 when Kalyan’s brother and superstar Chiranjeevi’s short-lived Praja Rajyam Party recorded a 16% vote-share to trigger a slim Congress victory and stall TDP’s comeback.
The situation is more fluid in Odisha where BJD has faced a relentless challenge from BJP since 2014. Amit Shah’s ambitious “Mission 120+” slogan and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s regular rallies signified Odisha’s importance in BJP’s electoral calculus. The 2017 Odisha panchayat elections in which BJP put up a strong showing and the aggressive courting of BJD dissidents was a wake-up call for Naveen Patnaik. He has since introduced the Kalia farm investment support scheme, dropped nearly three-fourth of its sitting MPs, and reserved 33% of seats for woman candidates. Sensing the fight, Patnaik is even contesting a second seat from western Odisha, BJP’s original stronghold.
In Arunachal Pradesh, BJP government was sitting pretty until a proposal to grant residency to non-tribal communities provoked unrest. Sikkim’s and India’s longest serving chief minister Pawan Kumar Chamling has to ward off the challenge posed by former protege PS Golay’s SKM. In states where national parties have a stake simultaneous Lok Sabha and assembly elections may put regional outfits at a disadvantage. Not surprisingly, Modi’s pitch for simultaneous polls found few takers. Opinion polls predict a strong BJP showing in Odisha’s Lok Sabha constituencies but BJD has the stronger grassroots presence. Irrespective of the outcome, Modi’s electoral battles with powerful CMs like Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee will be remembered for years to come.