By 2030, India might be one of the top three economies in the world and have less than 10% of its population below the poverty line, Union finance minister Arun Jaitley said on Saturday.

“Today, our total economy is about $2.9 trillion and we keep oscillating between the 5th and 6th largest, depending upon what the dollar rate is,” he said, adding the country is expected to “be $5 trillion by 2024 and $10 trillion by 2030 or 2031.”

Jaitley was speaking at the 93rd Annual Day of Shri Ram College of Commerce (SRCC), of which he is an alumnus. Apart from him, former Indian Ambassador to the United States Navtej Singh Sarna was present at the event. Awards and prizes were given out to outstanding alumni and students by the dignitaries in appreciation of the meritorious work done by them.

“That’s when we will be among first three—US, China and India and then, we would in the rat race of the big three wanting to catch up with much mightier competitors. So the sheer size and opportunities is going to expand,” he said.

Referring to the 2011 census, the finance minister said 21.9% of the population had been the below poverty line in India. “I assume it should be about 17% today and those who analyse data will tell you that around 2021, we should be closer to 15%, by 2024-2025, it should be in single digit,” he said.

Citing a study, Jaitley said the middle-class population would also increase from 18% in 2005 to an anticipated 44% in 2025. “As you look ahead you would see poverty deplete, you will see an exponential growth of middle class and probably by 2030 almost half of India would be in that category (middle class),” he said adding it was a “aspirational category.”

The consumption boost arising out of the rising middle class combined with infrastructure creation would help accelerate the growth process, he said. “Going by the data, in 2024, when the general election takes place, the size of the middle-class will be four times the size of people below poverty line . So, we have to see if public discourse is behind the curve or takes it further,” Jaitley said.

First Published: Apr 07, 2019 03:31 IST