Tamil Nadu’s western districts, a traditional stronghold of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), are expected to witness more intense electoral contests this time than ever before.
At stake are nine Lok Sabha seats and three Assembly seats, where by-polls are being held. All the established parties come under either the AIADMK’s coalition or the DMK’s. Untested political forces - the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam of T.T.V. Dhinakaran and the Makkal Needhi Maiam of Kamal Hassan – are making the contest more lively.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK performance was stupendous, both in terms of number of seats and the manner of victory. The party had comfortably won eight constituencies.
But now Jayalalithaa is not around to shepherd the party, which has been hit by the rebellion of Mr. Dhinakaran. And the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is keen on making inroads in the AIADMK’s bastion. There is talk that former Union Minister A. Raja is ahead of his rivals in the Nilgiris (Reserved) constituency.
Besides, the ruling party is fighting a perceptible anti-Modi mood in certain sections of society. “On my morning walks, I cannot utter a word in support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” concedes Seenivasan, a pro-BJP Coimbatore resident.
S. Nagarajan, a Tirupur-based industrialist and author of a monograph in Tamil on optimal utilisation of the Cauvery river water, feels that the BJP’s State unit has not capitalised on the Centre’s action of putting in place an implementation mechanism, in the form of the Cauvery Water Management Authority, for the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal’s final order. Also, farmers in the region feel that Mr. Modi could have met at least briefly farmers who held protests in New Delhi in 2017 and last year.
However, the ruling front is not without any advantage. Chief Minister and the AIADMK’s co-coordinator Edappadi K. Palaniswami hails from the region, apart from many senior Ministers. It is no secret why the AIADMK has chosen this region for fielding seven out of its 20 nominees. What may also work for the party is the fact that the Chief Minister appears to be growing in stature in the region.
“I am quite impressed with the way he has managed the situation in the last two years,” says K. Venkat Subramani, a Pollachi-based industrialist. S.Periyasamy, a cane farmer of the Thindal village, about 8 km from Erode, strongly protests when asked whether the caste factor – Mr. Palaniswami being a Vellala Gounder – has anything to do with his acceptability. “It is not his community but his performance that makes people like me support him,” explains the farmer.
However, elsewhere in the belt, fellow Gounders have a different opinion. In Dharmapuri’s Harur assembly seat [which is also going to by-polls], when asked whether he would vote for the AMMK’s candidate P. Palaniappan, a Gounder, or the PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss, a Vanniyar, in the Lok Sabha election, 29-year-old S. Premkumar says, “The question before me is to vote for making a Gounder an MP or ensuring the continuance of a Gounder as the CM. I would prefer the second option.”
Also, the strength of allies such as the PMK, the DMDK and the BJP should be useful to the ruling party in a couple of seats even though, largely, the AIADMK has to depend upon its core strength and resources to make it to the Lok Sabha. While V.P. Duraisamy, DMK’s deputy general secretary, says the PMK has lost its sheen heavily in recent times, M. Vadivelan, Dharmapuri’s senior AIADMK leader, however, asserts that “we have entered into pact with the PMK essentially because we are aware of their strength which has remained intact.”
As in many other parts of the country, the western region suffers from the chronic problems of lack of water sources and industrial pollution of water courses. The incidence of animal-human conflict is quite high.
“We do not have a full-fledged international airport here,” complains D. Devadas, a senior management executive hailing from Coimbatore who has returned home after serving in Thailand for years, adding that the situation has only benefitted Kerala’s Kochi, about 200 km away.
The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax had its adverse impact on numerous micro, small and medium enterprises. More than anything else is the emergence of the region in recent years as a hotbed of “resistance movements” – agitations against a gas pipeline project, installation of high-tension electricity transmission lines and the Salem-Chennai eight-lane green corridor project. “What makes matters worse is the officials’ attitude - lack of transparency and insensitivity,” says R. Mohanasundaram, a farmer of Poolavari panchyat near Salem and who is expected to lose six out of seven acres of land for the project.
V. Anand, a veteran ENT surgeon of Pollachi, goes to the extent of saying that “had Salem got an MP just as we have got in our MP, C. Mahendran, the situation would have been smoothly handled.” Though allegations are being made about the involvement of the ruling party in a sexual assault and blackmail case, Mr. Mahendran’s individual standing among people will ensure his victory, Dr. Anand feels.
Needless to say, money power was a big factor in the past. But, there is a feeling that it may not be effective this time.