With 35% of voters, urban Sahibabad holds key to Ghaziabad Lok Sabha seat

Ghaziabad: Unlike its sister constituency Gautam Budh Nagar, Ghaziabad has a distinctly urban sheen. Of the total 27.26 lakh registered voters in the Lok Sabha seat, the metropolitan assembly constituencies of Sahibabad and Ghaziabad together account for 51% of votes.
Sahibabad, in particular, is one of the biggest assembly constituencies in terms of number of voters. It has over 9.48 lakh voters, mostly residents of highrise societies in Indirapuram, Vaishali, Vasundhara and Kausambhi. And much like Sahibabad, Ghaziabad assembly constituency is urban and represents the old city, which is inhabited mostly by the trader community. It has 4.48 lakh voters.

“Statistics suggest that a candidate who does well in Sahibabad assembly constituency wins the Ghaziabad parliamentary seat. In 2014 general election, General VK Singh (retired) had bagged 2.59 lakh votes from Sahibabad alone, which was more than 34% of the total votes (7.58 lakh) secured by the former Army chief in the entire Ghaziabad Lok Sabha constituency,” said Sanjay Mishra, assistant professor of political science at MMH College, Ghaziabad.

In 2017 assembly election as well, BJP’s Sunil Kumar Sharma had polled over 62% of votes from Sahibabad assembly constituency, he added.

In neighbouring Khoda, the profile of residents is a little different — most are migrants from Bihar and eastern UP who work in factories in Sahibabad’s site 4 industrial area, which is primarily a pharmaceutical and automobile industry hub. “Khoda, which is part of the Sahibabad assembly constituency, has about 1.65 lakh registered voters and is known to vote in a cohes-ive mass. Naturally, political parties concentrate on the area, and they all have set up an office in Khoda,” Mishra added.

Even the political parties admit the importance of the constituency. “Voters living in highrises are politically aware while those in Khoda mostly constitute the labour class and given the sheer size of voters, this constituency is crucial for us to win,” said a BJP functionary.

“But the problem with highrise societies is that the voter turnout is low compared to other types of voters,” added the functionary.

Similarly, the Ghaziabad assembly constituency is also key to winning Lok Sabha polls. Suresh Bansal, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance candidate who himself comes from a trader background, said, “The Sahibabad and Ghaziabad assembly constituencies, which are the urban pockets, together consist of over 13 lakh voters. This is more than 50% of total voters, represented by all. Our endeavour is to reach out to each class — from labour-ers to factory workers to traders to white collar professionals.”

It’s a tougher battle for votes in the rural pocket however. The rural part of the Ghaziabad Lok Sabha seat — comprising Loni, Dhaulana (partial) and Muradnagar assembly constituencies — accounts for only 32% of the voters.

“In the rural belts of Loni, Dhaulana and Muradnagar, BJP’s VK Singh had polled 3.78 lakh votes in 2014. But the rural belt is part of western UP’s sugarcane belt and issues related to minimum support price and agrarian distress is a major issue. This could have a bearing on BJP’s prospects,” said Mishra. “The RLD, which has traditionally showcased itself as a party fighting for farmers’ issues, is in alliance with BSP and SP, and thus, both Congress and BSP-SP-RLD will try and make the most of the dissatisfaction with the government policies here.”

Even Congress candidate Dolly Sharma agreed. “We have been actively campaigning in Loni and Dhaulana. The impression we have got from farmers there is that the community is unhappy with the BJP government. With our manifesto promising a separate budget for farmers and farm loan waiver, it will hold us in good stead here.”

Much like most of UP, caste permutations play a role in the Ghaziabad Lok Sabha seat as well.

As per the 2011 Census, the constituency has 25.34% Muslims, 72.93% Hindus and 16.5% SCs. Unofficial caste estimates put Gujjars at 11.2% of the total population, Vaysas 9.6%, Rajputs 8.6%, Tyagis 8.22%, Brahmins 4.6% and Yadavs 2%.

“Of course, if we fit in the above caste and religion data into SP’s traditional vote bank, which consists of Muslims and Yadavs, they should, with the help of floating votes, be invincible. Or even Mayawati, who banks on the OBC and Dalit votes, would have won the Ghaziabad parliamentary seat in 2009 and 2014, but that was not the case,” explained Mishra.

The bottom line, according to political observers, is which issues the electorate is willing to overlook, and which it will hold the government accountable for.