The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decision to drop Kirit Somaiya, its two-term MP from Mumbai North East constituency for its ally, Shiv Sena, may have thwarted a rebellion in the ally camp, but comes with its own share of challenges.

Somaiya, one of BJP’s well-known parliamentarians from the state, is being replaced by a civic corporator, Manoj Kotak.

Although Kotak is a three-term corporator and a well-known Gujarati face, his influence is limited to Mulund, unlike Somaiya, who was a known name across the constituency.

Kotak’s opponent, Nationalist Congress Party’s (NCP) Sanjay Dina Patil, is a former MP (2009-14) from this constituency as well as a legislator from Bhandup (2004-2009). He is the son of NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s aide Dina Patil and has already taken the lead in campaigning. There is no third strong candidate in the fray.

Patil has also got support from the MNS. The Raj Thackeray-led party had performed a shade better in these segments than other areas in the previous elections. The MNS cadre has been told to go against the BJP government, indirectly helping the Congress-NCP regime.

Kotak’s biggest challenge, the political observers say, is to establish his credentials and image in a short time across eastern suburbs of Mankhurd, Ghatkopar, Vikroli, Bhandup and Mulund that make up this constituency. And, second is to ensure support of the Sena party leaders and cadre on ground zero.

The constituency is a stronghold of the saffron parties post 2014. Of the six Assembly constituencies, it has three BJP legislators and two Sena legislators (one seat is with the Samajwadi Party). But in the last four Lok Sabha elections, no candidate has won consecutive terms from here and it has gone twice to the Congress-NCP.

A senior BJP leader said the Sena would have to support Kotak. “The Sena had threatened a rebellion if Somaiya was given a ticket, now they have a candidate they are ok with, so they should help out. Kotak has CM Fadnavis’ support and gets along with local Sena leaders. If the Sena pitches in, Kotak will win,” said a city-based BJP leader.

The constituency has a maximum share of Marathi voters followed by Gujaratis. It has a sizeable presence of Dalits and Muslims, who may go against the BJP. While Gujaratis will vote for Kotak, a lot would depend on the Marathi voters, traditional Sena supporters. While the Sena has kept mum on BJP replacing Somaiya with Kotak, insiders said party chief Thackeray had agreed to support Kotak.

First Published: Apr 04, 2019 06:30 IST