A common thread runs through the campaign pitches of all anti-BJP parties for the coming Lok Sabha election: the Narendra Modi government has failed to create the number of jobs requiredor promised. In support of these claims, they point to a leaked National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) report, still to be officially released, which shows that the unemployment rate is the highest it has been in the past 45 years. There have also been some independent private surveys that show alarming levels of joblessness.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and finance minister Arun Jaitley have routinely dismissed these statistics, questioning the credentials and motivations of those who quote these figures as evidence of so-called jobless growth. They claim that widespread infrastructure development and Mudra loan numbers are evidence of a different story, that a large number of jobs have been created.

Do voters believe the government on jobs? Do they feel that the opposition is being alarmist? Based on a major survey conducted between October and December 2018 by the Delhi-based research group, Association for Democratic Reforms, jobs are the top issue on voters’ minds.

Jobs were also the top concern in last year’s survey, but as the election nears, the scrutiny has intensified further. And the news for the government is not good. Some 273,000 people were surveyed in 534 Lok Sabha constituencies across 32 states and Union territories, and their rating of the Modi government’s performance in its first term is that it has been decidedly below average.

The people surveyed were given a list of 31 issues. Nearly half declared jobs to be their top concern and gave the government 2.15 on a scale of five (a score of 3 is considered average’). The government scored under 3 for its performance not just in the five areas that voters considered their top priorities but on all 31 major issues.

In the 2017 edition of the survey, 30 per cent respondents had said employment was their top priority; this year, that number increased to 47 per cent (among urban voters, 52 per cent said it was their primary concern, as did 50 per cent of OBC voters).

Women were the most forgiving of the government’s performance on jobs, giving it a rating of 2.19 out of 5, while the most disappointed segment were SC (scheduled caste) voters, who gave the government 2.0; ST voters (2.04) were slightly more generous.

Among large states, 67 per cent of voters in Rajasthan said jobs were their highest priority, as did 66 per cent in Telangana, 62 per cent in Madhya Pradesh and a comparably low 52 per cent in Punjab.

In Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s constituency, Amethi, 68 per cent are worried about employment as are 64 per cent voters in Varanasi, the PM’s constituency. Indeed, in Varanasi, voters rate the government’s performance on jobs at a measly 1.88/ 5, compared with 2.43 in Amethi. If the survey is to be believed, the Modi government should be concerned.

Not only are more people more focused on jobs as their top priority, the government’s performance rating has gone down from 3.17/ 5 in 2017 to 2.15 this year. Clearly, the opposition narrative that the government, whatever its claims about its economic performance, is failing to provide sufficient numbers of jobs is finding some resonance with voters.

After jobs, the survey’s respondents said their top priorities were better healthcare (34.6 per cent) and access to drinking water (30.5 per cent). The numbers are again up from last year’s survey, where a smaller proportion of voters declared these issues as their top priorities.

For instance, only 12 per cent of those surveyed in 2017 said drinking water’ was their top priority. And in these areas too, compared to last year, the government’s performance ratings are lower, scoring just 2.35 on healthcare (3.36 in 2017) and 2.52 on drinking water (2.79 in 2017). In not a single area was the government’s performance even considered average’, let alone above average’.

Reading the survey, it is hard not to see the effects of an agrarian crisis. Some 40 per cent of rural voters said the availability of water for agriculture was their top priority; 39 per cent were most concerned about the availability of agricultural loans, about securing higher prices for their crops, and about the agriculture subsidy for seeds and fertilisers; 37 per cent of the respondents said sufficient electricity for agriculture was their chief concern. In 2017, the government’s performance on loan availability for agriculture was rated an impressive 4.44 out of 5. This year, that number is down to 2.15.

While jobs, hospitals, infrastructure and agriculture were predictably major issues, two of the Modi government’s biggest electoral planksthe eradication of corruption and terrorismwere among the lowest priorities of the respondents. Corruption was ranked 20th in a list of 31 major issues. And given the PM’s reputation of being incorruptible, the government’s dismal 1.37 performance rating in combating corruption is a surprise. Meanwhile, terrorism had a lowly 30th priority rank among key issues, though had the survey been conducted after the Pulwama attacks that might have changed.

ADR’s survey is in keeping with their desire to force greater accountability on the government. It also forces voters to ask questions about themselves. For all their expressed desire to vote for clean candidates who focus on the important issues, do voters behave in the same high-minded fashion in the polling booth? According to the survey’s numbers, an overwhelming 98 per cent of voters believe candidates with criminal records should not be elected to Parliament or assemblies. But 36 per cent also said they would vote for candidates with criminal backgrounds if there was evidence that they had done good’ work in the past. Also, 41 per cent admitted their votes were influenced by the distribution of cash, liquor and other gifts. No wonder, political parties continue to favour lax regulation that enables them to hide the sources of their vast incomes and the amounts they spend during elections.