Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s foray into the State could galvanise the Lok Sabha election into three-cornered contests in at least five segments where the Bharatiya Janata Party claims to have high stakes and this makes it imperative for the party to shield its vote base from any possible erosion.
The onus is on the BJP leadership to either increase its vote share or ensure that its base remains intact. Since the BJP sees the Left Democratic Front (LDF), especially the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] as its prime target, any dip in its vote share would draw charges of cross-voting in favour of the United Democratic Front (UDF). The LDF has already flagged the issue.
The BJP has exuded confidence of winning Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta, Thrissur, and Palakkad and considerably increasing its vote share in other segments. Besides the four, according to the BJP’s scheme of things Kottayam may also witness a strong three-cornered contest.
The focal point is Vadakara, which would witness a strong fight between the LDF’s P. Jayarajan and UDF’s K. Muraleedharan. The BJP decision to renominate V.K. Sajivan, who polled 75,000 votes in the last Lok Sabha election, lent credence to the speculation that it would be Mr. Jayarajan vs the rest in Vadakara and that the BJP, the UDF and others would team up to trounce their principal foe.
LDF charge
It has triggered allegations about the re-emergence of a tacit electoral understanding among the Congress, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the BJP across the State to defeat the LDF. Though the Congress and the BJP chose to dismiss it as part of a defeatist strategy of the LDF that anticipates a setback at the hustings, the latter has chosen to reiterate it with resolve.
The entry of Mr. Gandhi has increased the responsibility of the BJP to fare well in the four segments where it had already staked tall claims and enhance its vote share in others, including Vadakara, Kannur, and Kasaragod.
KC(M) role
In view of the discord in the Kerala Congress (M) and its alleged differences with the Congress in Kottayam, both parties will have to check any possible shift of votes to National Democratic Alliance candidate P.C. Thomas of the Kerala Congress.
Any significant change in the vote share would give way to charges of vote trading and that would be quite damaging for the UDF as well as the BJP, sources said.