Monsoon likely to be below normal: Skymet forecast

NEW DELHI: Downgrading its initial assessment of normal rains, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Wednesday that India is likely to see a below-normal monsoon this year, with central and east India at most risk of poor rainfall, due to the projected presence of El Nino during the season.

Skymet pegged countrywide rainfall during the monsoon period (June-September) at 93% of the long period average. Of greater concern for agriculture is the forecast of weak rains during June and July, when most of the sowing for the kharif (summer) crop normally takes place.

The forecaster said rainfall is likely to be 23% below normal in June and 9% below par in July, usually the wettest month of the year. The forecasts for August and September are brighter, with rainfall pegged close to normal at 2% above and 1% below, respectively. Monsoon is expected to be weak over central and parts of east India. Skymet said MP, Marathwada, Vidarbha, parts of interior Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of Bengal are at risk of poor rains.

Odisha, Chhattisgarh and coastal Andhra Pradesh are most likely to see normal rains, Skymet said. The country’s official weather forecaster, India Meteorological Department, will issue its monsoon outlook later this month, with officials hinting that the forecast is likely to be released after second phase of polling on April 18.

Skymet said the first half of the rainy season is likely to come under the shadow of El Nino, a state where waters in the east and central Pacific Ocean warm beyond threshold levels, leading to changes in wind patterns that often weaken the Indian summer monsoon. A weak El Nino had set in in February and the Pacific has continued to warm since then. “Models give a 60% probability of El Nino continuing in the June to August period, down from 80% in the previous months. This means, it is going to be a devolving El Nino year, though retaining threshold values through the season. Thus, monsoon 2019 is likely to be below normal,” said Skymet MD Jatin Singh. If the forecast holds, 2019 would be the third successive year of below normal monsoon and raises concerns over water availability. Agriculture ministry officials said farm production is not likely to be impacted too much if rainfall distribution, across regions and months, is not skewed.

However, poor rains in June-July could result in delayed sowing of kharif crops in northwest India, particularly Punjab, Haryana and western UP. Officials said this may lead to an increase in stubbleburning, a major source of air pollution in the region in October-November, as a corresponding delay in harvesting will leave only a small window for farmers to ready their fields for the winter crops.