Erdogan came to prominence as mayor of Istanbul, and the loss of the major urban centre, along with Ankara, could disrupt the intricate network of favours and finances that the AKP has built in these centres.For the detractors of Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his party challenging its loss in the urban body elections in Ankara and Istanbul could be a sign that the right-wing, populist leader is shaken. The largely government-controlled media in the country is echoing the ruling AKP’s (Justice and Development Party) stand that ballots were tampered with. The AKP may also take solace in the fact that, nation-wide, it polled over 50 per cent of the vote. Yet the election results represent the biggest blow to Erdogan’s political fortunes in nearly two decades.
First, both symbolically and politically, the loss in Istanbul is a huge setback for the AKP and Erdogan personally. Erdogan came to prominence as mayor of Istanbul, and the loss of the major urban centre, along with Ankara, could disrupt the intricate network of favours and finances that the AKP has built in these centres. The poll is seen as a referendum on his rule: Erdogan reportedly addressed as many as eight political rallies a day during the campaign, and hand-picked the candidates. Second, the myth of Erdogan’s electoral invincibility has been, if not shattered, certainly dented. A united campaign by the Opposition has yielded results. The principal anti-Erdogan force in Turkey, the Republican People’s Party, promised economic, social and political changes. Others like the People’s Democratic Party, a party of the Kurdish minority, supported the main opposition strategically. This unity, if it does not crumble, could pose a serious challenge to the AKP in the 2023 general elections. Finally, Erdogan and the ruling establishment in Turkey would be remiss to not view the result as a reflection of its policies. The Turkish economy has been in a slide, with unemployment and inflation rising.
Of course, Opposition unity may not last until 2023. Repressive tactics that Erdogan’s regime has employed against political opponents — the press and activists — could intensify to a degree that they make a genuine electoral contest impossible. For the moment, though, the election results in Turkey provide a signal to polities dealing with populist leaders that can undermine democratic institutions while claiming to represent the popular will. It is through the ballot that the popularity of populists is undermined.
