Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s decision to choose Wayanad as his second seat has come as a shot in the arm for the Congress and the party-led United Democratic Front (UDF). True, the decision came after much fretting and fuming and humming and hawing. Better late than never. That seems to be the dominant feeling in Congress now.
The decision has come as a big relief for the UDF camp as the delay was causing anxiety in the UDF circles. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the second most important constituent of the UDF, in fact, made no secret of its displeasure over the foot-dragging.
Understandably, the political masterstroke has galvanised the rank and file of the Congress. The party workers have plunged themselves heart and soul in to the campaigning for the ‘future Prime Minister’. Leader of the Opposition, Ramesh Chennithala will be the campaign in charge for Wayanad, it is learnt.
An immediate upshot of the Rahul’s entry into Wayanad fray would be an end– at least temporarily – to the rampant factional feud blighting the party. Now that he has joined the poll battle from Wayanad, the dominant factions in the State Congress, the A group led by Oommen Chandy and the I group headed by Ramesh Chennithala have buried the hatchet much to the relief of the Congress workers.
The sense of jubilation in the Congress camp is visible and palpable. The UDF would win 20 out of 20, gushed a visibly happy Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president Mullappally Ramachandran. Rahul’s presence would also have a cascading effect on the neighbouring states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, opined Mullappally. The development has taken the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front(LDF) by surprise. Of course, the LDF leaders are putting up a brave front.
But the sense of unease pervading the LDF camp is too evident to be missed. Rahul would make no difference to the final outcome, the left leaders argue The ground reality, however, tells a different tale. There could be a consolidation of the minority vote in favour of Rahul. The CPI(M) leaders, however, rule out such a possibility. In support of their argument, they point out that the minorities’ extended solid support to the LDF in their 2016 Assembly elections.
Nothing has happened to change that political situation, they argue. UDF leaders, however, say that the Lok Sabha elections is a different ball game altogether. The minorities would therefore, back the Congress since at the national level, the fight is directly between the Congress and the BJP.
The minorities know that this is a crucial battle and the paramount need of the hour is to oust the Modi-led BJP Government at the Centre. And Congress alone, the minorities feel, can accomplish this daunting task at the national level. Therefore, the kind of minority support the LDF enjoyed in the assembly polls will not be there in this LS poll battle.
The LDF leaders, including Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, claim that by deciding to fight from Wayanad as well, Rahul has sent a wrong message. The Congress claim that it is committed to a fight against the BJP will sound hollow hereafter as in Wayanad the BJP is no force at all. Rahul, they argue, has already diluted the fight against the BJP by also deciding to fight from Wayanad.
Congress leaders also rebut the BJP criticism that Rahul is scared of defeat in Amethi; hence the move to take refuge in ‘safe’ Wayanad. They contend that the decision to contest from Wayanad is to send a clear message that the Congress won’t neglect South India. By choosing Wayanad, Rahul was only bowing to the collective wish of the voters of the South to represent them.
The victory of Rahul is a foregone conclusion. The only question of interest is the scale of margin. Out of the seven assembly segments that form Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, three fall in the Muslim-dominated Malappuram district, a bastion of the IUML. Rahul would win with the largest majority, promise IUML leaders.
Rumours are rife that BJP may take over the seat from its ally, the BDJS now that Rahul has thrown in his hat in the Wayanad ring. Reports have it that that BDJS chief Tushar Vellappally, who is expected to fight from Thrissur may opt for Wayanad now, leaving the Thrissur seat for the BJP. But that won’t make any material difference to the Wayanad result. The constituency is all set to elect the ‘future PM’ with a record majority, Congress leaders aver.
The gain for the Congress could be loss for the LDF. The LDF leaders admit in private that the fight has become tougher in view of the Rahul factor. How they will counter the Rahul impact remains to be seen, though the left leaders claim that Rahul is just another candidate and that the LDF would win majority of seats from Kerala.
P Sreekumaran is freelance journalist. Views are personal.