Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari, during his campaign, tells voters that he never lets social or political equations come in the way of Nagpur’s development and stresses against voting based on caste, religion, or community. Apart from being idealistic, the speech exposes reasons to worry for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Nagpur and the changed social equations.
In 2014, amid the Modi wave and call for change, Nagpur — the headquarters of the BJP’s parent organisation, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) — voted out Congress’s Vilas Muttemwar after 20 years by a margin of around 2.85 lakh votes. Mr. Gadkari won the election with a promise to bring development and employment to the city. His clean slate won him votes even in Muslim and Dalit pockets. Not only was the Congress candidate old, and ran a lacklustre campaign, but also the infighting within the party made him a sitting duck.
This time, the Congress has picked former BJP MP of Bhandara-Gondiya, Nana Patole, who resigned from his post in 2017. Mr. Patole portrays himself as an individual, who even took on Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the sake of his ideals and his past shows he could be the giant-killer in the Lok Sabha elections.
Mr. Patole belongs to the Kunbi community, the largest in terms of numbers in the constituency. Kunbi, Halba, Dalit and Muslims form the majority of voters in the constituency. A Kunbi mega conference was held in Nagpur two months ago in a bid to unite all castes and sub-castes within Kunbis. “The Congress for the first time in two decades has fielded a Kunbi candidate. Mr. Patole’s clean image, aggression is being appreciated, and Kunbis are voluntarily holding rallies for him,” Kamlesh Wankhede, senior journalist with Marathi newspaper Lokmat, said.
Halbas are angry with the BJP for not fulfilling the promise of extending Scheduled Tribe status to the community. Halbas and Kunbis were with the BJP in the 2014 general polls. Around 32 Dalit organisations recently held a closed-door meet and decided to vote for the Congress to defeat the BJP. “Muslims too will vote one way to the Congress,” Mr. Wankhede said. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has given ticket to Mohammad Jamal, restricting its chances to cut in to Dalit vote bank.
For the BJP, despite changing social equations, Mr. Gadkari’s image remains the biggest asset. The party while campaigning on the development plank, is organising small, close-door community meetings. With six MLAs in the city and all owing allegiance to Mr. Gadkari, the party is fielding State ministers and leaders from neighbouring constituencies to ensure victory at any cost.
Issue of unemployment and discontent within traders remain the major reason to worry for the BJP. As per Mr. Gadkari’s claim, he initiated works worth ₹70,000 crore in Nagpur city alone, but the number of youths given jobs stand at 25,000 when the promise was of 50,000.
According to political observer Jaideep Hardikar, the anti-BJP forces are silently working on ground. “One can witness that forces which are ideologically against the BJP are helping the Congress this time. Communities, traders too are silently working. There is no Congress leader to lead but these forces are doing their work,” he said.
By bringing an outsider candidate, the Congress managed to curb the infighting within its Nagpur unit and opened an opportunity for the second-rung leaders of the party to demonstrate their might, four months before the State Assembly polls.